Oil Rise Dents Stocks Before Key Jobs, Price Data
Published as of: March 12, 2026, 9:20 a.m. ET
Disclosure
Major index values are as of Wednesday's close; others are as of 8:48 a.m. ET.
(Thursday market open) More inflation and earnings loom heading toward the weekend amid worries that the war—and its impact on global oil prices—could persist. Crude flirted with $100 per barrel this morning and major indexes declined despite the International Energy Agency agreeing to release 400 million barrels of oil. The U.S. announced a major release, too.
Following today's weekly initial jobless claims report that came in low at 213,000, more labor data looms at 10 a.m. ET tomorrow with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The JOLTS reading is from January, so a bit long in the tooth, but still could be closely watched for clues about hiring after February's nonfarm payrolls report of 92,000 jobs lost. Tomorrow morning also brings January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data, a report the Fed eyes closely for inflation. Analysts expect monthly 0.3% growth for the headline reading and 0.4% for core, compared with 0.4% for both in December.
Major indexes barely budged Wednesday before settling mixed, with chip names lending the Nasdaq a slight boost. Still, crude remains in control. Bearish market sentiment is up dramatically this week, but data this morning had positive vibes, including jobless claims and better-than-expected January housing starts and building permits.
Three things to watch
- Additional crude released as inflation fear ramps: The additional IEA output of crude oil would likely add about 4 million to 4.5 million barrels a day of additional supply, Barron's reported. However, around 15 million barrels of oil normally flow through the Strait of Hormuz each day, and it remains shut and could take weeks to reopen barring a full ceasefire. Bloomberg Economics estimates a three-month closure would send global crude prices to $164 per barrel. Plans by Gulf oil producers to reroute about seven million barrels a day might help, but wouldn't close the gap, and apparent attacks by Iran on oil tankers in Iraq late Wednesday highlighted danger to crude already produced. As crude rises, U.S. Treasury note yields march higher on inflation concerns, a correlation that might not last. "Eventually, high oil prices are negative for growth," said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.
- Earnings begin bustling again: After a slow start to the week highlighted mainly by Oracle's (ORCL) solid results Tuesday, the reporting calendar gets busy today with names like Adobe (ADBE), DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS), and Lennar (LEN). The consumer names here might provide some insight ahead of tomorrow's University of Michigan preliminary March Consumer Sentiment report. Sentiment has been weak for months, possibly amid inflation and jobs concerns. The war and its higher gas prices might indicate more gloom in the future—tomorrow's report was compiled early this month just after the conflict began. Analysts expect a drop to 55% for headline sentiment from 56.6% a month ago. Long-term inflation expectations were 3.3% in February, and any uptick there might indicate worsening sentiment around prices as gas began to climb.
- Private credit concerns persist: Morgan Stanley (MS) fell 2% early today after Bloomberg reported the firm is limiting redemptions on a private credit fund. Morgan Stanley's North Haven Private Income Fund, which has almost $8 billion in assets, returned around $169 million, or less than half of investors' tender requests, after capping redemptions at 5% of shares, Bloomberg said. This is the latest example of growing concerns about the quality of loans made by private credit funds, especially to software firms. BlackRock (BLK) dove 7% last Friday after the asset manager said it had decided to limit withdrawals from one of its private credit funds following a wave of redemption requests in the first quarter, Barron's reported. Private credit stocks Blue Owl Capital (OWL) and Apollo Global Management (APO) fell 3% and 2%, respectively, this morning, following the Morgan Stanley news. The S&P 500 financials sector, tracked on an equal-weight basis with all components weighed the same, is down 11% from its high, the sharpest correction since last April's tariff "liberation day" sell off.
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Crypto currents
Iran shows crypto's promise and challenges: Iran has suffered sustained annual inflation above 40% and a 98% decline in the national currency versus the dollar over the past decade. No wonder the country has become one of the world's biggest holders of cryptocurrencies, which were conceived as both a store of value and a source of financial freedom, a way to opt out of (or perhaps evade) the legacy financial system. Of course, Iran was locked out of that system as part of sanctions over the regime's nuclear weapons program. Either way, the country serves as a test case, illustrating both crypto's potential usefulness and the challenges it poses to the existing global financial system. For ordinary Iranians, crypto offers a way to preserve their savings despite crushing inflation and currency depreciation. About 15 million Iranians—about 16% of the population—have established at least some exposure to crypto, the country's largest crypto exchange recently told Reuters. But Iran's biggest crypto trader is the regime. Of nearly $8 billion in crypto transferred to Iranian wallets in 2025, about $3 billion went to entities linked to the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), according to Chainalysis, a blockchain data platform. That was part of a nearly 700% global increase in crypto transfers to entities linked to sanctioned nations such as Russia, Venezuela, and North Korea, Chainalysis said.
On the move
- Adobe slipped less than 1% early today ahead of its earnings report due after the close. Last time out, in December, Adobe narrowly beat consensus views with its results and offered upbeat guidance.
- Dollar General (DG) fell almost 6% ahead of the opening bell despite earnings that topped consensus and revenue that matched consensus views. Guidance also was in line with expectations. Shares were up sharply since late last year heading into the report.
- DICK's Sporting Goods climbed 4% early after quarterly results came in above Wall Street's expectations. Fiscal 2027 earnings guidance, however, was below the FactSet consensus. Sales at stores open a year or more rose 3.1% for DICK's Sporting Goods but fell 3.4% for Foot Locker.
- Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) soared another 5% after yesterday's 10% rally. CNBC reported that this occurred after Eli Lilly (LLY) issued a notice about an impurity associated with a compounded version of its weight-loss drug, potentially positive news for competitors.
- Lululemon, which recently traded at multi-year lows, slipped another 2% this morning ahead of its earnings next Tuesday. Earnings come amid a proxy battle as founder Chip Wilson tries to change the company's board, news first reported earlier this year by the Wall Street Journal. Last time LULU reported, it beat expectations, but its U.S. business remained under pressure.
- Crude (/CL) pared earlier gains as Wall Street's opening bell approached but remained up 7% and above $90 per barrel. The Trump administration said yesterday it plans to release 172 million barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said this morning the U.S. is not ready to escort tankers through the Strait, CNBC reported.
- Chances of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month are practically zero and odds of a cut in 2026 don't rise above 50% until September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Chances of two cuts or more this year fell to around 35% this morning from almost 85% a month ago, meaning the market generally anticipates just one cut this year as war-related inflation dented hopes for lower rates.
- Technically, any break below current levels for the S&P 500 Index might set up another test of lows below 6,700 reached last November and again earlier this week. Monday's intraday low of 6,636 could be a support point. The 200-day moving average—now at 6,596—hasn't been broken in 10 months.
More insights from Schwab
New look at war and markets: Learn more about what the war means for investors in Schwab's latest WashingtonWise podcast. In it, Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at SCFR, gave his perspective on crude and explains current resilience in U.S. markets versus Europe and Asia. He also noted the war could have an impact on sector rotation.
Productivity and rates: Does higher lead to lower? Schwab's new look at markets and the economy centers on Fed Chairman Nominee Kevin Warsh and his assertion that AI-fueled productivity gains can drive economic growth and allow the Fed to lower rates without poking the inflation bear. Not everyone is completely convinced.
Taxes on Non-qualified Stock Options (NQSO)—a primer: This tax overview helps you understand how your NQSOs are taxed and what documents you'll need when filing in the United States.
Seeking financial independence: For many people, freedom means being financially independent, able to make their own decisions about work, time and lifestyle. Check Schwab's new financial planning feature that examined living life on your own terms and ways to potentially get there.
Chart of the day
Data source: Nasdaq. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
Though war-related volatility and software sector AI concerns have sent many individual Nasdaq-100® (NDX—candlestick) stocks on dramatic descents recently, the NDX itself has been quite resilient. The last month, starting before the war, features rangebound trading between the 200-day moving average (blue line) and 100-day moving average (red line), without much of an attempt by investors to push through on either side. The direction of the next major move might not be determined until one or the other of those lines is broken for a few straight sessions.
The week ahead
Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.
March 13: January PCE, Q4 GDP second estimate, University of Michigan preliminary March Consumer Sentiment, and January Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
March 16: February industrial production, and expected earnings from Dollar Tree (DLTR).
March 17: Expected earnings from lululemon (LULU) and DocuSign (DOCU).
March 18: FOMC rate decision, Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate decision, February PPI, and expected earnings from General Mills (GIS), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Micron (MU), and Five Below (FIVE).
March 19: ECB rate decision and expected earnings from Alibaba (BABA), Accenture (CAN), Darden Restaurants (DRI), and FedEx (FDX).
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