Looking to the Futures

2025 has been a banner year for precious metals. While agricultural products are mixed and energy is down, the metals complex has solid gains on the year. Gold (/GC)and silver (/SI) (/PA) are up around 26% while platinum (/PL) is the top performer, holding a 44% gain.

In addition to safe-haven demand due to trade policy uncertainty and stubborn inflation, metals have been buoyed by a weaker dollar. The dollar index ($DXY) is down 10% for the year. The biggest sources of gold for US imports are Canada, Mexico and Switzerland. For the year, Canadian dollar futures (/6C) are up 3.5%, Mexican peso futures (/6M) are up 11% and Swiss franc futures (/6F) are up 12.4%. Silver imports are also led by Canada and Mexico, while Canada provides the most palladium. South Africa is the top supplier of platinum, followed by countries in the Eurozone. The South African rand (/6Z) is up 6.4% and the Euro (/6E) is up 12.9%. Looking ahead on exchange rates, the CME FedWatch tool has a 70% chance of a quarter point cut in September and an 71% chance of cuts totaling 50 to 75 basis points by the end of the year. 

In addition to interest rates, central bank gold investment is affecting gold prices. In the first half of the year, central banks purchased a net 123 metric tons (t). Net purchases totaled 22t in June, the third consecutive increase. Buying was led by Central Asian countries, with the Central Bank of Uzbekistan buying 9t and the National Bank of Kazakhstan buying 7t. The Monetary Authority of Singapore was the only significant seller, offloading 6t.

Similar to gold, silver benefits from safe-haven demand. It is also an important industrial metal. A fast-growing source of demand has been solar panels. Each solar panel requires about two-thirds of a troy ounce of silver. With current technology and manufacturing methods, ten tons of silver are required per GW of solar capacity. Annual solar installation is around 600 GW per year, implying demand of around 6,000 tons or 175 million ounces. Total demand is forecasted at 1,148 million ounces, with yearly supply coming in at 1,030 million ounces.

Platinum is similar to silver in the sources of demand. Its primary uses are in catalysts, substances that affect chemical processes without being consumed in those processes. The best-known industrial use of platinum is in catalytic converters like those in vehicle exhaust systems, where they convert over 90% of carbon monoxides and oxides of nitrogen into harmless emissions products. It is also used as a catalyst to manufacture fertilizers and plastics. Industrial demand for the year is expected to total over 4 million ounces. Platinum is also used in jewelry, where it can serve as a substitute for gold, especially in China. As the price of gold increases, it helps support platinum prices as jewelry buyers turn from the yellow metal to the white metal. Jewelry demand is forecasted at 2 million ounces for the year.

Palladium is a platinum group metal and consequently has similar properties and uses as platinum. The bulk of demand is for catalysts in vehicle exhausts and plastics manufacturing. In addition to its primary use in catalysts, palladium is used to alloy gold into white gold. Given its price per ounce is about a third of gold, it can be used to make gold jewelry cheaper, making up 25% of 18k white gold and 41% of 14k white gold.