Looking to the Futures

Bitcoin continued its weekend momentum on Monday, reclaiming the $80,000 threshold. Front-month May futures (/BTCK26) rose 2.05% on the day, closing at a three-month high of 80,390. The move held relatively strong throughout the session but closed off the highs as rising tensions in the Middle East pressured broader markets. Light sweet crude (/CL) and Brent crude (/BZ) oil futures rose more than 4% on news of the escalation. 

Oil prices and developments in Iran took center stage Monday as Bitcoin continued to creep higher, coming off its best month since April 2025. Bitcoin is coming off a 12.7% gain last month, marking back-to-back monthly advances after rising nearly 2% in March. Since its February lows, BTC has gained more than 20% but remains well below its all-time highs from October of last year. 

The largest cryptocurrency has remained relatively out of the spotlight amid a lack of major catalysts, as attention has been focused on the Iranian conflict. One potential catalyst markets have been watching is resolution of the digital asset market structure bill known as the Clarity Act. The Act would establish a regulatory framework for digital assets and define oversight responsibilities among agencies. Under the proposal, the CFTC would assume primary oversight of spot digital commodity markets, reducing the SEC's current reach. The bill passed the House of Representatives in July 2025 but has struggled to advance to a Senate vote, until recent developments provided renewed optimism for near term progress.

The main sticking point has been a disagreement between crypto firms and banking groups over whether digital asset companies can offer yield like rewards for holding stablecoins. Banks have warned this could lead to deposit outflows and reduce available lending capital. On Friday, reports indicated the two sides reached an agreement, calling on lawmakers to move forward with the legislation as early as next week. The revised proposal aligns with banks' concerns while still allowing rewards tied to activities such as trading, staking, and transacting. While Senate approval is still required, this compromise appears to clear the path for a final vote. 

In broader geopolitical developments, the UAE reported Monday that Iran launched missile and drone strikes on the country, adding further tension to an already fragile situation. This came less than a day after President Trump announced "Project Freedom," aimed at freeing stranded vessels in the Strait of Hormuz due to Iran's blockade. Reports later Monday indicated U.S. forces neutralized six small Iranian boats attempting to disrupt commercial shipping, though Tehran's state media denied the claims. With tensions escalating around the strait's closure and oil prices pushing back toward recent highs, markets appear set for another week driven by headline risk.

On the daily chart, May Bitcoin futures (/BTCK26) rallied to three-month highs Monday, settling up 2.05% at 80,390. /BTC held above the 100 day simple moving average after closing above it Friday for the first time since late October. Price remains above the 20- and 50-day SMAs, with significant distance remaining before testing the 200 day, which currently sits just below 94,000.

The 14-day RSI finished at 65.6, indicating bullish momentum but not yet in overbought territory. Trading volume increased on Monday, with just under 12,000 contracts traded, above the 50-day average of 9,242. 

According to the Weekly Commitment of Traders Summary, asset managers expanded their net-long futures position by 34 contracts and reduced their short position by 33 contracts for the week of April 28th. 
 

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New futures products are available to trade with a futures-approved account on all thinkorswim platforms: 

• Ripple (/XRP)
• Micro Ripple (/MXP)
• 100 OZ Silver (/SIC)
• 1 OZ Gold (/1OZ)
• Solana (/SOL)
• Micro Solana (/MSL)

Visit the Schwab.com Futures Markets page to explore the wide variety of futures contracts available for trading through Charles Schwab Futures and Forex LLC.