Looking to the Futures
Strong Summer Demand Supports Oil Prices
Crude oil futures (/CLQ25) rallied to end the week after the International Energy Agency (IEA) sees increasing oil demand during the summer months, forestalling an expected crude supply glut until later in 2025.
In its Weekly Petroleum Status Report, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude oil stockpiles increased by 7.1 million barrels during the week ending July 4. This was contrary to expectations for a 2-milion barrel draw.
U.S. oil production declined by 48,000 barrels last week and averaged 13.385 million barrels per day. This was 85,000 barrels higher than one year ago.
On the oil product side, distillate inventories declined by 800,000 barrels, above expectations for a 300,000-barrel draw. Distillate inventories are now 23% below the five-year average for this time of year.
Gasoline inventories declined by 2.7 million barrels, which was above forecasts for a 1.7-million-barrel draw. These stockpiles are 1% below the five-year average.
EIA said gasoline production increased from the previous week and averaged 9.9 million barrels per day. Distillate production also rose last week, averaging 5.1 million barrels per day.
The agency also reported that U.S. ethanol production increased last week, averaging 1.085 million barrels per day. Expectations were for 1.082 million barrels per day.
Ethanol inventories declined to 24 million barrels last week. Traders were expecting inventories of 23.8 million barrels.
Digging further into the EIA report, refinery utilization declined by 0.2 percentage point to 94.7% last week. Expectations were for a decline to 94.8%. U.S. gasoline demand rose by 519,000 barrels per day to 9.159 million barrels per day. Distillate demand fell last week, declining by 375,000 barrels per day to 3.668 million barrels per day.
Oil inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, stood at 426 million barrels, 8% below the five-year average.
Oil storage in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the WTI Crude Oil futures (/CL) contract, rose by 500,000 barrels last week to 21.2 million barrels.
The U.S. crude oil rig count fell by seven and now total 425 rigs during the week ending July 4. That’s down 11.3% from a year ago and the lowest oil rig count since September 2021, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes’ North American Rotary Rig Count report.
This morning, U.S. stock index futures moved lower in the early hours with the S&P 500® (–0.29%), the Nasdaq-100® (–0.31%), the Russell 2000® (–0.35%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average® (–0.28%) all in the red.
In Asia, major indexes closed mixed, with the Shanghai (+0.27%) and the Hang Seng (+0.26%) higher, but the Nikkei (–0.28%) posting losses.
European trading saw the FTSE (+0.34%) move higher, but the DAX (–1.03%) and the CAC (–0.51%) move lower by midday.
Futures on the move
Natural gas futures (/NGQ25) ended Friday’s trading session lower (–0.69%) despite a mildly bullish EIA gas inventory report. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 53 billion cubic feet (Bcf) during the week ending July 4. This was below expectations for a build of 60 Bcf. U.S. gas inventories are currently 6.1% above the 5-year average, but –5.8% below last year. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center is forecasting slightly above to above normal temperatures from July 17 to July 23 for New England, Central and South Florida, Central and South Texas, Louisiana, the Upper Great Plains, and Pacific Northwest. Below normal temperatures are seen from the Midwest through the Central Plains down through Northern Texas, New Mexico, and Southern Arizona during this time period.
Corn futures (/ZCZ25) closed lower on Friday (–1.02%), despite what several market analysts believed was a moderately bullish USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE) for July. The USDA estimated U.S. corn production for the 2025/26 season at 15.705 billion bushels, down from 15.820 billion in June and below the average trade estimate of 15.731 billion. In addition, the USDA lowered U.S. ending stocks for 2025/26 to 1.660 billion bushels. This was down from 1.750 billion in June and below average estimates for 1.72 billion.
Platinum futures (/PLV25) rallied on Friday (+4.06%) to its highest levels since 2014. The platinum market is in its third consecutive year of supply deficits, with the World Platinum Council projecting a 966,000 ounce deficit for 2025. Increased demand for platinum jewelry and a 4% decline in total supplies has been the key components to the platinum market shortfall so far this year.
What else to watch today
Major economic reports, trading events, and news items that could potentially impact specific futures markets:
Today’s trading events
Futures Last Trading Day: July grains and currencies
Treasury auctions
3-and 6-month T-bills
New Products
New futures products are available to trade with a futures-approved account on all thinkorswim platforms:
- Ripple (/XRP)
- Micro Ripple (/MXP)
- Micro Corn (/MZC)
- Micro Wheat (/MZW)
- Micro Soybean (/MZS)
- Micro Soybean Oil Futures (/MZL)
- Micro Soybean Meal Futures (/MZM)
- 1 OZ Gold (/1OZ)
- Solana (/SOL)
- Micro Solana (/MSL)
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