I'm Colette Auclair, and here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Thursday, June 12th:
Investors who'd hoped for a clear trade deal roadmap with China were probably disappointed as details from talks in London slowly dribbled out yesterday. Though President Trump called the deal done and U.S. officials said the rare minerals aspect of the dispute got worked out, there's little clarity, and U.S. export controls on semiconductors appeared to stay on tightly.
At first glance, it also looks as if tariffs on Chinese imports might remain at 55%, well above the level when Trump took office. Additionally, the deal could still be rejected by Trump or Chinese President Xi.
Market reaction yesterday was negative, mainly due to the likely tariff levels. The next 30 days include the expiration of tariffs on countries other than China, and the Trump-imposed July 4 deadline for the budget bill. This all appeared to make participants cautious about testing all-time highs yesterday despite encouraging U.S. inflation data.
The last leg of the almost two-month rally was built on hopes of a thawing trade relationship not just with China but with Europe, Japan, and India as well. There've been hints of progress on those, but the July 9 deadline approaches and almost nothing is official. Investors had seemed sanguine that trade and U.S. budget challenges could be solved on time, but the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) ticked up yesterday after the China news.
Turning to more immediate issues, today's Producer Price Index (PPI) data could be on the table when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets next week. No one expects a rate move, with odds for that near zero according to the CME FedWatch tool. Yesterday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) looked benign, but PPI --which measures wholesale price trends -- also could play into the Fed's updated economic projections that arrive with the Federal Reserve's rate decision next Wednesday.
Going into PPI, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, analysts expect a 0.2% rise in the headline figure and a 0.3% rise for core, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. The April numbers were -0.5% and -0.4%, respectively, but that likely reflected the heavy tariffs that took effect that month and dampened demand for imports. With today's inflation report and others, it's important to monitor the difference between goods and services results, as goods are more likely to reflect any tariff impact on prices.
Headline and core CPI both rose 0.1% in May, the government said in its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report yesterday, with core excluding volatile food and energy prices. Analysts had expected monthly 0.2% headline CPI growth and 0.3% core growth, down from 0.2% for both in April.
"This was a report that should have captured some of the tariff risk, and since it wasn't a blowout to the upside, I think that's good news," said Cooper Howard, director, fixed income strategy, at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. "Goods inflation was essentially flat for the month, which was a surprise. Services was the main driver." The goods number would likely be where tariffs had an impact, so that tame reading may explain Wall Street's sudden rise.
Digging deeper, so-called "supercore" CPI that drills into a narrower set of price metrics of core services minus housing and is closely monitored by the Fed, stood at 2.86% year over year in May, still above the 2% Fed goal. And core CPI continues to outpace headline as lower gas prices accounted for part of May's slow headline growth. Airfare fell sharply year over year but used cars and truck prices rose.
Data beyond PPI today include weekly initial jobless claims, also due at 8:30 a.m. ET. The last two jobless claims reports exceeded the near-term average that had been running between 220,000 and 230,000, historically low levels. The recent rise above 240,000 hasn't been around long enough to be called a trend, but if it continues at that level or higher it might reinforce impressions of cracks in the jobs market. Falling labor participation last month means actual unemployment may have grown slightly even though last Friday's nonfarm payrolls report didn't reflect that. Consensus for initial claims today is relatively high at 250,000, according to Briefing.com.
Also watch continuing claims, which last week reached the high end of their long-term range above 1.9 million. A climb in that category suggests work is harder to find for those who lose their jobs.
Treasury yields took a leg down Wednesday for most of the complex after a strong 10-year Treasury auction and the softer-than-expected CPI data. A 30-year auction is today. Odds of a Fed rate cut in July edged up to around 19% by late Wednesday after the CPI report.
Tech giant Oracle reported late yesterday, followed by Adobe later today. Otherwise, the earnings calendar is light and stays that way next week. Oracle's earnings and revenue surpassed analysts' consensus expectations and shares initially made light gains in post-market trading.
On Wednesday, major U.S. indexes took a spill for the first time since last week. Ten of 11 S&P sectors ended in the red, with energy the only one avoiding losses. The worst performers were a mix of cyclical and defensive areas including consumer discretionary, materials, real estate, and staples. Materials stumbled on a news report that the U.S. and Mexico were close to an agreement to end President Trump's 50% tariffs on Mexican steel, a development that hurt steel stocks. Semiconductor stocks lost their footing after it appeared the deal with China doesn't do anything to allow them more access to that market.
Amazon's weakness hurt consumer discretionary, but retail stocks weakened almost across the board when an appeals court decided Trump's tariffs on overseas products could remain in place as the court case continues. An earlier ruling found the tariffs unconstitutional. This is a case that ultimately might be decided by the Supreme Court.
Technical support for the S&P 500 index likely remains near the 200-day moving average, currently around 5,800. Resistance is near the all-time high of 6,144.
Wider breadth often indicates strong positive sentiment spread through the market, meaning a rising tide is lifting many boats. It often signals underlying strength behind a rally. The S&P 500 index managed to hold 6,000 yesterday despite falling about 0.25%, and that 6,000 level might be a nearby one worth watching.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) dropped 1.10 points Wednesday (0.00%) to 42,865.77; the S&P 500 index (SPX) fell 16.57 points (-0.27%) to 6,022.24, and the Nasdaq Composite® ($COMP) gave back 99.11 points (-0.50%) to 19,615.88.
