It's a new month but major indexes are up to their old ways, dropping overnight along with Treasury yields ahead of tomorrow's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement from the White House. Once again, U.S. stocks went the opposite way of their European and Asian counterparts early Tuesday, extending a trend toward U.S. underperformance after the S&P 500 index (SPX) fell 4.6% in the first quarter. A sharp decline in yields suggests investors might seek perceived safety in fixed income.
Though there are hopes that tomorrow's announcement could provide some relief on Wall Street, there hasn't been much evidence lately of investors stepping in to buy dips, but there also hasn't been an all-out capitulation. Instead, the market continues to grind slowly lower, with U.S. stocks posting their worst quarter versus the rest of the world's indexes since the 1980's and investors crouched in a defensive posture.
Data this week could help investors determine if recent soft consumer and business sentiment reflect actual weakness in manufacturing and jobs. Friday's March Nonfarm Payrolls report caps all other data and is expected to show 130,000 jobs added, down from 151,000 in February, with unemployment remaining at 4.1%. Should job growth fall to the level analysts expect, it would still indicate hiring stability. However, that "contrasts with a decline in confidence among business leaders likely to be evident in this week's ISM reports for March," said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Schwab. Those reports kick off with ISM Manufacturing PMI® this morning.
Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research
Morning Rush
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is lower by ~9 basis points to 4.025%.
The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is lower by 0.11 at 104.10.
WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is higher by 0.27% to $71.67/barrel.
Gold prices are hitting all-time highs today and have traded in a range of $3,152.20-$3,177.00, last seen trading higher by 0.40% to $3,163.00/oz.
Natural Gas prices have traded in a range of $4.001-4.148 and were last seen trading lower by 2.18% to $4.029.
Bitcoin (BTC) is higher by ~2.41% to $84,545.03.
Today's Bullish Activity
Shares of PVH Corp. (PVH + $9.95 to $74.59) are moving higher after the retailer reported Q4 earnings of $3.27 per share, excluding non-recurring items ($0.06 beat) on revenue that fell 4.8% year-over-year to $2.37B (above the $2.33B expected). Looking ahead, the company said that Q1 EPS is expected to come in a range of $2.10-2.25 (vs. the $2.24 FactSet consensus estimate) on Q1 revenue that is expected to be flat to down 2%, while guiding fiscal-year 2026 EPS to a range of $12.40-12.75, which is above the $11.43 FactSet consensus estimate. Calls are outnumbering puts ~2:1 with the April 17th 80.00 call being the highest volume contract (volume is 3,283).
Also moving higher this morning is Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK + $2.10 to $90.27) after Loop Capital upgraded the burger chain to "Buy" from "Hold" and put a $127.00 price target on the stock. Analysts at Loop Capital cited better-than-expected comparable sales growth, rapidly growing digital sales and improved in-store labor productivity. Calls and puts are trading roughly even with the April 4th 84.00 put seeing the most action from traders (volume is 100).
New 52-week highs (26 new highs today): Chubb Ltd. (CB + $0.72 to $302.71), Verisign Inc. (VRSN + $1.80 to $255.67), Waste Connections Inc. (WCN + $2.11 to $197.30)
Notable Call Activity
Some unusual call activity (~100:1 calls over puts) is being seen in Cognyte Software Ltd. (CGNT + $0.26 to $8.06) which is primarily being driven by activity on the October 17th 7.50 call. Volume on this contract is 1,004 versus open interest of 39, so we know that the volume primarily represents fresh positioning. The bulk of the transactions consisted of various-sized blocks that were bought around the same time at the ask price of $1.70 each, which suggests bullish intent.
Today's Bearish Activity
Shares of Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL - $1.62 to $41.97) are trading lower this morning after Jefferies downgraded the airliner to "Hold" from "Buy" and cut their price target on the stock to $46.00 from $85.00. Analysts at Jefferies cited soft corporate and consumer sentiment due to macro uncertainty. Calls are outnumbering puts ~2:1 with the June 20th 45.00 call being the highest volume contract (volume is 5,288).
Also trading to the downside this morning is Genuine Parts Co. (GPC - $1.11 to $118.03) after Goldman Sachs downgraded the maker of automotive and industrial replacement parts to "Sell" from "Neutral" and lowered their price target on the stock to $114.00 from $133.00. Puts are outnumbering calls ~6:1 with the May 16th 130.00 put seeing the most action from traders (volume is 200).
New 52-week lows (327 new lows today): Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. (FND - $0.33 to $80.14), ON Semiconductor Inc. (ON - $0.39 to $40.30), Thor Industries Inc. (THO + $0.65 to $76.46)
Notable Put Activity
Some unusual put activity is being seen in Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR + $0.55 to $84.95) as option traders primarily target the April 25th 60.00 put. Volume on this contract is 134,752 versus open interest of 24,123, so we know that the bulk of the volume represents fresh positioning. The activity included a 30,000 contract block that was bought for $0.74, above the bid/ask spread ($0.68 x $0.70) at the time of the trade, and several large blocks (4,170, 4,170, 4,170, 4,170, 4,170, 4,000, etc.) that were bought at various times for between $0.52-$0.65 each, which suggests bearish intent. The heavy buying has resulted in some IV skew as the implied volatility on this contract is 90% versus 67% for the at-the-money strike (85.00), same expiration.
Volume Signals
Magnera Corp. (MAGN + $0.22 to $18.38): Option volume is running at ~290x the daily average on this maker of non-woven products which is primarily being driven by two large blocks that simultaneously traded on the June 20th expiration earlier this morning:
- 17.50 put (open interest is 67): An 800 contract block was bought for $1.70 when the bid/ask spread was $1.30 x $1.75.
- 12.50 put (open interest is 35): An 800 contract block was sold at the bid price of $0.20.
We know that both these blocks are new positions based on the respective open interest figures and it appears that a $5.00-wide bear put spread was established for a net debit of $1.50 (x 800 contract x 100 multiplier, excluding commissions). The positioning suggests that the block trader believes that MAGN will close below the break-even price of $16.00 at expiration.
Confluent Inc. (CFLT + $0.21 to $23.65): Option volume is running at ~10x the daily average on this data streaming platform which is primarily being driven by several large blocks (4,500, 750, 750, 750, 750, 750, 750) that were bought at the same time on the May 16th 28.00 call for $0.88 when the bid/ask spread was $0.80 x $0.90 (open interest is 403). We know that these blocks are new positions based on the open interest figure, and we can assume the intent is bullish in nature since the trades took place above the midpoint of the bid/ask spread.
Darling Ingredients Inc. (DAR + $0.32 to $31.56): Option volume is running at ~10x the daily average on this food products company which is primarily being driven by a 3,000 contract block that was bought on the July 18th 25.00 put at the ask price of $0.90 (open interest is 1,175). We know that this block is a new position based on the open interest figure and we can assume the intent is bearish in nature since the trade took place at the ask price.
Gauging Volatility
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX - 0.58 to 21.70) has been on both sides of the unchanged line today (intraday range is 21.58-23.52), as equity markets are higher around the midday mark (DJI + 90, SPX + 31, COMPX + 181). VIX option volume is above average today at 342,572, which puts the index at the #9 spot on the "Top Volume by Underlying" list. The volume put/call ratio is currently 0.65 with the highest volume contract being the May 21st 25.00 call (volume is 31,200 vs. open interest of 113,424).
