Today's Options Market Update

The Federal Reserve rate decision at 2 p.m. ET today lacks drama. Investors expect a 25-basis-point cut and then look ahead to mega cap earnings and trade talks. However, no Fed meeting should be taken lightly. "Powell's tone will be scrutinized, with considerable interest in what he says about inflation and jobs given the lack of government economic data during the shutdown," said Michael Townsend, managing director, legislative and regulatory affairs at Schwab.

Other things to look for include the chance that Powell might announce the end of the Quantitative Tightening (QT) program that's reduced the Fed's balance sheet the last few years. The program was established to combat spiking inflation, but the balance sheet is now back to near normal levels and there have been some hiccups in short-term funding markets, indicating the level of reserves may be getting low. Also, the absence of data due to the government shutdown could prevent Powell from providing specific information on the number of rate cuts—if any—head. "This is significant since the market is discounting a steady pace of cuts bringing the fed funds rate to under 3% by mid-2026," said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab. "There could be volatility at the short end of the curve if he doesn't sound dovish at the press conference."

On Tuesday, only three S&P 500 sectors climbed, but with Nvidia (NVDA) soaring 5% and Microsoft (MSFT) up 2%, it was enough for another record S&P 500 index close. The tech rally accelerated after The Wall Street Journal reported Presidents Trump and Xi could emerge from their Thursday meeting with a plan to lower fentanyl-related tariffs on imports from China. The idea that tariffs could lighten seemed to ignite investor enthusiasm. Trump slapped 20% fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese imports earlier this year. The leaders are also expected to discuss rare earths and soybeans, and major U.S. indexes continued to rise this morning on hopes for a positive outcome after overnight gains in Tokyo and Shanghai.

Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is higher by 1 bps to 3.99%.

The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is unchanged at 98.68.

The CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX) is higher by 1.50% to 16.61.

WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is up by 1.26% to $60.91/barrel.

Bitcoin (BTC) is lower by 2.18%, trading at $111,240.

Ethereum (ETH) is dropping by 2.26% today to $3,950.

Shares of Bloom Energy Corp. (BE + $25.90 to $139.19) are up over 22.00% today after the energy company reported earnings and revenue results that beat expectations. Bloom reported Q3 EPS of $0.15 versus expectations for $0.09 on revenue of $519.05 million, exceeding estimates for $424.98 million. Total revenue gains equated to a 57.1% year-over-year increase. The company also announced it closed the quarter with roughly $595 million in cash on its balance sheet.

On a year-to-date basis, shares have risen 384.72% and are up over 1000% from a year ago, highlighting what has been a banner year, but also highly volatile year for BE shares. Pacing that growth in share price has been the deals the company has added this year, including an AI partnership with Brookfield Asset Management and fuel cell technology partnership with Oracle Corporation. Analysts still appear bullish on the shares, even after the runup, with today's price target upgrades from HSBC (PT raised to $150), Morgan Stanley (PT raised to $155), and Susquehanna (PT raised to $157).

Option trading in BE currently stands at 101,860 contracts, 7x the average daily volume with calls outpacing puts 2:1. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:

• October 31st, 2025, 150.00 call accounted for 6,878 contracts; open interest is 634 contracts.
• October 31st, 2025, 140.00 call accounted for 3,922 contracts; open interest is 1,621 contracts.
• October 31st, 2025, 100.00 put accounted for 2,609 contracts; open interest is 2,492 contracts.

New 52-week highs (200 new highs today): Cambium Networks Corp. (CMBM + $1.18 to $1.82), Nvidia Corp. (NVDA + $7.00 to $208.03), Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR + $7.33 to $196.96), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD + $4.44 to $262.45), Bloom Energy Corp. (BE + $25.90 to $139.19)

Unusual call activity is noted today in Western Union Co. (WU + $0.05 to $9.54), as call volume currently stands at 63,753 contracts, 7x the average daily volume and 40x the put volume. Activity is greatest in the December 19th, 2025, expiration month where the 10.00 strike calls have traded over 38,561 contracts, through multiple block orders, with buys and sells fairly evenly spread. With open interest of 21,901 contracts, these are mostly new orders. Shares of WU have rallied over 17% in the past week to get back above the 200-day SMA following earnings that topped analyst estimates.

Another name exhibiting unusual activity today is Carrier Global Corp. (CARR + $3.45 to $61.97), as call volume has spiked to 15,671 contracts in morning trading, 11x daily average. Most of the volume is in the January 16th, 2026, expiration, where a large a bullish risk reversal that traded 10,884 times (totaling 21,768 contracts). Traders sold the 50.00 strike puts to buy the 65.00 strike calls, paying $1.50 per spread. Traders will employ bullish risk reversals when they want to take a synthetic long position on the stock without paying the full price for the shares. As the name implies, this is a bullish trade. What makes this trade particularly interesting is the fact that Carrier Global just announced earnings yesterday that topped estimates, and shares have now climbed above the 50-day SMA for the first time since late July.

Shares of Fiserv Inc. (FI - $53.12 to $73.05) are plunging today, down over 42.00% today, its worst day ever, after the fintech company missed on its Q3 earnings and revenue numbers and cut its adjusted EPS guidance for the full year to a level below the average analyst estimate. For Q3, Fiserv reported adjusted EPS of $2.04, missing the estimate of $2.63, from adjusted revenue of $4.92 billion, also well shy of estimates for $5.33 billion. For next year, Fiserv expects adjusted EPS $8.50 to $8.60, versus estimates for $10.14 and sees organic revenue +3.5% to +4%, below the average estimate of +8.66%.

Per Barrons, Fiserv CEO Mike Lyons, who assumed the role in May, attributed the guidance cut to overly optimistic expectations for growth in Argentina and a previous focus on "short-term initiatives" that hurt Fiserv's ability to form long-term relationships with customers. The company also announced a handful of leadership shake-ups including naming a new finance chief and co-presidents.

Option trading in FI currently stands at 187,777 contracts in morning trading, on pace for 60x the daily average, with calls outpacing puts 2:1. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:

• December 5th, 2025, 60.00 put accounted for 13,340 contracts; open interest is zero contracts.
• October 31st, 2025, 75.00 call accounted for 10,326 contracts; open interest is zero contracts.
• October 31st, 2025, 80.00 call accounted for 8,782 contracts; open interest is zero contracts.

New 52-week lows (113 new lows today): Fiserv Inc. (FI - $53.12 to $73.05), Varonis Systems Inc. (VRNS - $30.26 to $32.74), Kraft Heinz Company (KHC - $1.00 to $24.52), Caesars Entertainment (CZR - $2.05 to $20.04), Stride Inc. (LRN - $77.17 to $76.36)

There is unusual put activity today in Avantor Inc. (AVTR - $2.69 to $12.39). This activity equates to over 56,156 put contracts, 46x average daily put volume. Nearly all of the activity can be attributed to the December 19th, 2025, expiration month, specifically at the 10.00 strike where a massive block order of 54,179 contracts was sold for a price of $0.17 when the bid/ask was $0.10 x $0.30. We know this represents new positioning given the open interest of 20 contracts (suggesting neutral to bullish intent).  Shares of AVTR are down over 17% today after the company announced Q3 sales that missed expectations. The choice of the 10.00 strike for the put sale would be just below the 52-week low price of $10.83, set back in early August, also following an earnings announcement.

Unusual activity has also been detected in Church & Dwight Inc. (CHD - $1.58 to $82.67), as put volume stands at 4,770 contracts in morning trading, 180x average daily volume. Traders took on new positions in the November 21st, 2025, expiration month, specifically at 75.00 strike after a large block order for 4,707 contracts was sold for a price of $0.42 when the bid/ask was $0.35 x $0.80. We know this represents new positioning due to the low open interest of 14 contracts (suggest neutral to bullish intent).  Shares of CHD just set a 52-week low of $82.32 today, so traders may be showing a willingness to add shares at $75.00 based upon the trade.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX + 0.25 to 16.67) is up 1.50% in morning trading, even as equity markets are higher across the board (DJI + 266, SPX + 11, COMPX + 96). VIX movement has occurred within a fairy narrow range today (the intraday range is 16.26 – 17.02). The highest volume contract is currently the December 17th, 15.00 put (volume is 21,221 vs. open interest of 136,148).