Today's Options Market Update
Stocks Higher Following Mixed Inflation Data
U.S. July inflation mainly met expectations and kept hopes alive for a September rate cut, but an increase in one important category might mean additional churn for the market. The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2%, as expected, while core CPI excluding food and energy also rose an as expected 0.3%. Annual core CPI, however, climbed 3.1%, up from June's 2.9% and analysts' 3% consensus. "CPI was in line with expectations but the trend is heading in the wrong direction," said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab.
CPI—which Jones says "may not prevent a rate cut" in September because policy is restrictive—suggests that progress toward the Fed's 2% inflation goal has stalled. But stocks are moving higher after the data. In other news, President Trump on Monday announced a 90-day extension of the deadline for the U.S. and China to formulate and agree on tariffs. The two countries evidently made progress during negotiations last month. The announcement removed one pressure point, but stocks didn't show much response as the decision was widely expected.
Stocks stayed on hold most of Monday ahead of CPI but selling accelerated in the last hour. Softness was widespread, with just one sector, staples, finishing higher, and health care unchanged. This lean toward defensive sectors showed up on a few days last week and might raise eyebrows if it continues, especially considering the market is in a seasonally weak period. And as info tech fell 0.7% Monday after last week's rally, no other sector came along to pick up the pieces.
Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research
Morning Rush
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is higher by ~2 basis points to 4.29%.
The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is lower by 0.49 to 98.03.
WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is lower by 1.14% to $63.23/barrel.
Gold prices have traded in a range of $3,379.10-$3,410.80, last seen trading lower by 0.12% to $3,400.60/oz.
Natural Gas prices have traded in a range of $2.78-2.99 and were last seen trading lower by 5.82% to $2.78.
Bitcoin (BTC) is higher by ~0.51% today to $119,419.00.
Today's Bullish Activity
Gapping higher this morning is Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL + $24.29 to $185.46) after the payments technology company reported fiscal-year Q2 adjusted operating earnings of $126.0 million, above the FactSet estimate of $119.4 on revenue that 53.0% year-over-year to $658 million (above the $645.7 million expected). The company cited strong early momentum on its payments network. Calls and puts are trading roughly even with the August 15th 200.00 call seeing the most action from traders (volume is 23,915).
Also trading to the upside this morning is On Holding AG (ONON + $5.24 to $50.96) After the shoe manufacturing company reported fiscal-year Q2 revenue that exceeded analysts' expectations, while also raising its full-year guidance, including additional reciprocal tariffs per the United States Presidential Executive Order issued on July 3. Calls and puts are trading roughly even with the August 15th 44.50 put seeing the most action from traders (volume is 11,480).
New 52-week highs (161 new highs today): Barclays Plc. ADR (BCS + $0.22 to $20.27), Ebay Inc. (EBAY + $0.25 to $95.55), Interactive Brokers (IBKR + $1.16 to $67.34)
Notable Call Activity
Some unusual call activity (~14:1 calls over puts) is being seen in financial infrastructure company Alt5 Sigma Corporation (ALTS - $0.82 to $5.78) which is primarily being driven by activity on the August 15th 6.00 call. Volume is 3,873 versus open interest of 450 so we know we have some fresh positioning here. Activity consisted of various-sized blocks being bought at various times at the ask prices between $0.32 - $0.60, suggesting bullish intent.
Today's Bearish Activity
Gapping down this morning is BigBear.ai Holdings Inc. (BBAI - $1.78 to $5.30) after the IT service management company reported a larger-than-expected fiscal-year Q2 loss than analysts surveyed by FactSet had anticipated, as revenues also came in south of expectations. The company also lowered its full-year revenue forecast, "due to uncertainty on certain Army programs as well as anticipated growth investment spending in H2 of the year." BBAI also withdrew its outlook for operating earnings. Calls are outnumbering puts ~1.5:1 though the January 15th 2027 2.00 put is seeing the most action from traders (volume is 25,787).
Also trading to the downside this morning is Celanese Corporation (CE - $9.73 to $37.69) after the specialty materials producer provided fiscal-year Q3 earnings well below the FactSet estimate, noting that it sees a softening demand environment across most end-markets in the second half of the year. The disappointing outlook is overshadowing the company's better-than-expected Q2 results. Puts are outnumbering calls nearly 2:1 with the August 15th 40.00 put leading the way (volume is 5,867).
New 52-week lows (74 new lows today): Braze Inc. (BRZE - $0.11 to $24.02), International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF - $0.55 to $62.91), Vertex Inc. (VERX - $0.07 to $24.92)
Notable Put Activity
Some unusual put activity (~12:1 puts over calls) is being seen in software company Synopsys Inc. (SNPS + $5.22 to $621.34) which is primarily being driven by activity on the August 22nd 617.50 put. Volume is 907 versus open interest of one, so we know we have some fresh positioning here. Activity consisted of various-sized blocks being bought around the same time at the ask prices between $15.27 - $15.29, suggesting bearish intent.
Volume Signals
Mitsubishi Ufj Financial Group Inc. (MUFG + $0.61 to $15.10): Option volume is running at ~190x the daily average on this Japanese bank holding and financial services company, which is primarily being driven activity on the August 15th 15.00 call. Volume on this contract is 2,932 versus open interest of 568, so we likely have fresh positioning. The bulk of the volume consisted of various medium-sized blocks being bought around the same time at the ask price of $0.25, suggesting bullish intent.
Aercap Holdings NV (AER + $3.28 to $113.65): Option volume is running at ~27x the daily average on commercial aircraft and aviation leasing company, which is primarily being driven activity on the October 17th 115.00 call. Volume on this contract is 1,150 versus open interest of 209, so we likely have fresh positioning. The bulk of the volume consisted of various-sized blocks being bought around the same time at the ask prices between $3.20 - $3.26, suggesting bullish intent.
Pubmatic Inc. (PUBM - $1.92 to $8.66): Option volume is running at ~13x the daily average on this cloud-based ad platform aided by fresh activity on the January 16th 2026 12.50 call, as volume is 2,610 versus open interest of 287. The trading of this contract consisted of various-sized blocks being bought around the same time for the ask prices between $0.30 - $0.40, suggesting bullish intent.
Gauging Volatility
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX – 1.39 to 14.86) has been in positive and negative territory today (intraday range is 14.79-16.56), as equity markets are higher across the board around the midday mark (DJI + 454, SPX + 62, COMP + 255). VIX option volume is above average today at 669,633 contracts, which puts the index at the #8 spot on the "Top Volume by Underlying" list. The volume put/call ratio is currently 0.55 with the highest volume contract being the August 20th 15.00 put (volume is 48,126 vs. open interest of 115,713).
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