Published as of: October 27, 2025, 9:19 a.m. ET

1. China trade not a done deal: The Trump-Xi meeting takes place Thursday in South Korea, with the two leaders expected to discuss issues ranging from soybeans to rare earth. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this weekend that a framework of a deal has been reached, and that the two parties would come away from talks with a deal. Trade worries ignited the October 10 selloff of almost 3%, and there's always a chance one side or the other might not be agreeable. Any negative headlines would likely disappoint Wall Street. That's especially true this time, considering Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 155% on November 1 "unless we make a deal." That threat appears over, according to Bessent, but the two countries have long sparred over issues like fentanyl and export controls and it's always possible talks could get sidetracked even at this late date. "We could see both sides look for leverage, but having a relationship is mutually beneficial, making a deal more likely than not over the longer term," said Michelle Gibley, director of international research at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, speaking before the weekend's signs of progress.
    
2. Bonds-stocks back in balance: The historic correlation between lower yields and higher stocks appears to be back in working order lately. "The rise in bond yields has been arrested across Europe, much of Asia, and the U.S.," said Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at Schwab, speaking on CNBC late last week. "Bond pressure has alleviated, and the correlation between bond yields and stock prices is positive again." The U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield edged below 4% as major indexes rallied to new highs last week but isn't likely to fall much further. While the futures market builds in 97% chances of a rate cut this week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, it might not be good to get too certain beyond any single meeting after Friday's September Consumer Price Index, or CPI, showed inflation still elevated at 3% year over year. "Although the market's pricing in another cut in December, we're not so sure about that," said Cooper Howard, director, fixed income strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. "Services prices continue to make up the bulk of the increase in CPI, but goods prices also contributed. Goods prices rose at a slower pace, but the categories that are more exposed to tariffs advanced."
    
3. Trade anticipation lifts tech, retail, social media stocks: Shares of Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), Microsoft, Amazon, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Broadcom (AVGO) all rose 1% to 2% ahead of Monday's open, buoyed by hopes for a U.S.-China trade deal. Apple also climbed, but less than 1%. The semiconductor sector would likely benefit if China and the U.S. found ways to compromise and allow more U.S. chips into China, while companies like Amazon and Tesla would likely gain from better trade conditions as both depend on China for production and product sourcing. Lululemon (LULU) and Nike (NKE) rose 4% and 1%, respectively, following weekend signs of progress in trade talks. Retail companies with large markets in China would likely benefit, as would those that manufacture there. Oracle (ORCL), Snap (SNAP), and Reddit (RDDT) rose 1% to 2% in early action after Bessent said the U.S. and China have reached "a final deal on TikTok." TikTok is expected to sell its U.S. assets to a consortium of investors, likely to include Oracle, Silver Lake Management, and MGX, according to media reports. Snap and Reddit are other social media stocks. Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) rose 4% this morning on hopes that a trade deal with China would re-ignite U.S. agriculture exports. U.S. soybean exports to China have been zero bushels so far this year. Last year, China bought $13 billion worth of U.S. soybeans, more than 20% of the entire crop.

• Keurig-Dr Pepper (KDP) surged more than 8% as quarterly results surpassed Wall Street's estimates and the company raised guidance. Investors appeared encouraged by a 1.5% rise in U.S. coffee sales and a 10.5% jump in international sales.
   
• Shares of rare earth companies like Critical Metals (CRML), MP Materials (MP), and USA Rare Earth (USAR) fell 5% to 10% in early action on ideas that a trade agreement might make rare earth materials from China more accessible for U.S. buyers.
   
• F5 Networks (FFIV) climbed 1.6% ahead of its earnings due this afternoon. The technology firm specializes in application security, multi-cloud management and online fraud prevention.
   
• Treasury yields climbed slightly ahead of today's 2-year note and 5-year note auctions, results of which should be out early this afternoon. Recent auctions have seen decent demand, including from overseas buyers, though non-U.S. buyers have generally focused on short-term U.S. debt, not long-term, The New York Times noted this weekend.
   
• Bitcoin futures (/BTC) soared more than 4% this morning as hopes of a trade deal with China appeared to raise "risk-on" sentiment across the market. This tends to benefit assets like bitcoin.
   
• Coinbase (COIN), Strategy (MSTR), Circle Internet Group (CRCL), and other crypto-related stocks rose 1% to 3% in pre-market trading as cryptocurrencies rallied.
   
• Gold (/GC) and silver (/SI), both of which came down from recent highs last week, continued to lose ground this morning. For gold, this could be a sign that the "flight to safety" trade is fading, as gold is sometimes seen as a perceived "safe" haven, though no investment is truly safe.
   
• Newmont (NEM) fell nearly 5% on declining metals prices.
   
• Blended S&P third-quarter earnings growth—which includes firms already reporting and projections of what's ahead—is estimated at 9.2%, up from below 8% on September 30, according to FactSet.
   
• Major indexes rose last week. The DJIA added 2.2%, the S&P 500 gained 1.92%, and the Nasdaq climbed 2.31%.