Published as of: October 6, 2025, 9:10 a.m. ET

1. Fed stays busy despite shutdown: This week features speeches from Federal Reserve governors tomorrow and Wednesday, followed later Wednesday by minutes from the last meeting and Thursday by remarks from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at a bank conference. Investors might listen for clues on what they're watching instead of the normal data flow. Policy makers will likely rely on private jobs reports like last week's ADP jobs release, which showed a decline, and possibly on independent estimates for economic data from some of the big investment banks. There's very little data this week, though the Senate plans another attempt to reopen the government today. "Without the jobs report, the Fed is missing a key piece of data to inform their views, but the ADP report should help build the case for the committee members who favor rate cuts now," said Collin Martin, director, fixed income strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. As of this morning, futures trading builds in nearly 95% chances of a rate cut at the Fed's October 28-29 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, and 83% chances of two rate cuts between now and year-end. However, if the shutdown stretches into next week and threatens September's inflation data, the Fed will face another challenge. 
    
2. Treasuries on tap: Despite the shutdown, the U.S. Treasury Department remains on schedule to host several key auctions this week that could give investors a better sense of how demand shapes up for U.S. debt. Though earlier this year there was concern that U.S. political uncertainty might hinder foreign interest, that didn't prove to be the case, and demand generally impressed through most of the summer. Now it's fall and yields are down slightly across the curve from summer peaks, so a 3-year note auction tomorrow and a 10-year note auction Wednesday could be closely watched for any changes in buying interest. Another question is whether demand might flag due to the shutdown, which raised new fears that the U.S. credit rating could get docked again. Treasury yields rose this morning, but eyes are overseas after an election in Japan. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) elected Sanae Takaichi, likely paving the way for her to be prime minister. The election "suggests an expansionary fiscal stance and a delay in the BoJ rate hike," said Michelle Gibley, director of international research at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. A delay in expected rate hikes there could conceivably help Treasury prices here in the U.S., but some long-term Japanese yields are up today. 
    
3. Chip rally briefly flags, facing concerns: Friday featured a slight downturn in tech stocks, especially in the chip space where media speculation focused on how soon AI spending might slow. Some analysts say the data center build-out is in the seventh inning, to use a baseball term. Others say it's as early as the second inning. Whatever the case, investors appeared inclined to pull back after the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) hit an all-time high early Friday. If AI spending ever eases, tech is likely to take a hit of some sort, but the question is how the market might react. "If we get a pullback in the tech trade, how deep will it go, or how long will it last before dip buyers step back in?" said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives analysis at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. "The uptrend has been resilient and the intermediate term technicals remain bullish, but near-term there are some indications that we're overbought." These include a 14-year high in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the SOX, which Peterson said implies "some near-term caution on the tech trade is warranted." 

• Advanced Micro Devices climbed 25% in early trading Monday after AMD and OpenAI announced a six gigawatt agreement for AMD chips to power OpenAI's artificial intelligence infrastructure. Under the agreement, OpenAI will work with AMD as a core strategic partner to drive large-scale deployments of AMD technology, the companies said. The deal also gives OpenAI a chance to take a 10% stake in AMD.
   
• Nvidia fell 0.5% early Monday but was down as much as 1% at times overnight following the AMD/OpenAI deal. Nvidia has long been number one in AI chip sales, but this deal gives one of its chief rivals a new avenue to gain market share. Broadcom (AVGO) also fell.
   
• Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) fell 2% and Comerica (CMA) rose nearly 13% early Monday as Fifth Third agreed to buy Comerica for about $10.9 billion in stock, Bloomberg reported. The deal will create the ninth-largest bank in the country. 
   
• Bitcoin (/BTC) leaped to a new record high of $125,500 early Monday. "Pretty much all the key factors are working in bitcoin's favor right now: money supply growth, a weak dollar, narrow credit spreads, seasonality, the first two years of a bitcoin halving, adoption, and short term momentum," said Jim Ferraioli, cryptocurrency strategist at Schwab. "October is usually the best month for bitcoin." Crypto-linked stocks Coinbase (COIN) and Strategy (MSTR) climbed more than 2%.
   
• Tesla (TSLA) climbed 2.4% in early action after the company posted videos Sunday suggesting it may be ready to introduce a new car. Investors have been waiting for a lower-priced EV, and Tesla has also discussed a next-generation Roadster vehicle, CNBC reported.
   
• Several automaker stocks rose late Friday after Reuters reported that the Trump administration is considering "significant tariff relief" for companies that assemble their vehicles in the U.S. Shares of Ford (F) rose more than 3% while General Motors (GM) shares added 1.3%. Stellantis (STLA) rose 3%.
   
• Constellation Brands (STZ) inched up early Monday ahead of earnings later today. Last time, Constellation disappointed investors by missing estimates as demand fell and aluminum tariffs took a toll, according to CNBC. The company also faces tariff worries affecting popular imported Mexican beers.
   
• Palantir (PLTR) fell 7% Friday, hurt by a Reuters report that the company's battlefield communications system was flawed. Palantir said that claim was outdated and already addressed, Bloomberg reported. Shares bounced back 2.7% this morning.
   
• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) climbed 1.2% early Monday despite stocks being up. Sometimes when VIX rises, it implies a rockier road ahead for the S&P 500 index.
   
• Though last week saw health care lead all sectors in what might be a move toward defensive names, the long Wall Street rally continues to see investors embrace more volatile areas, too. "In terms of leadership at the baskets level, niche baskets like quantum and drones have been on fire; but so are classic retail trader favorites like memes, non-profitable tech and heavily-shorted stocks," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Schwab.