Published as of: August 4, 2025, 9:25 a.m. ET
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| The markets | Last price | Change | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500® index | 6,238.01 | -101.38 | -1.60% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average® | 43,588.58 | -542.40 | -1.23% |
| Nasdaq Composite® | 20,650.13 | -472.32 | -2.24% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.20% | -0.02 | -- |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 98.65 | -0.49 | -0.50% |
| Cboe Volatility Index® | 19.08 | -1.29 | -6.33% |
| WTI Crude Oil | $65.79 | -$1.54 | -2.30% |
| Bitcoin | $114,715 | +$1,145 | +1.01% |
Disclosure
Major index values are as of Friday's close; others are as of 8:53 a.m. ET.
(Monday market open) Investors are looking to bounce back from Friday's selloff, and may be off to a good start: S&P 500 index futures rose more than 0.5% ahead of the opening bell. All Magnificent Seven stocks were trading higher in premarket action with Amazon (AMZN) and Nvidia (NVDA) leading the charge at 1.8% and 1.2% respectively. And expectations of a September rate cut rose to 83.4% early Monday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, from under 40% Thursday.
The disappointing July nonfarm payrolls report on Friday missed expectations of 102,000 reporting 73,000 jobs added. The government dramatically cut its estimates for May and June job gains by a combined 258,000, putting them at levels well below what's needed to keep pace with population growth. It was the most dramatic downward revision since the height of the pandemic in May 2020 and suggests the economy might be slowing. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in July from 4.1% in June.
In response to the ill-received jobs numbers, President Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) commissioner Erika McEntarfer late Friday, speculating that the data released was inaccurate. In other departure news, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said she would step down before her term ends in January. Trump can now select a replacement—someone on the seven-person committee who could be seen as the heir to Jerome Powell's throne.
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Three things to watch
- Earnings shed light on corporate response to tariffs: Many firms have relocated production, negotiated with suppliers, stocked up on supplies, or passed along costs to customers to moderate the impact of new tariffs. Margin estimates are climbing again, Bloomberg reported, though Amazon was one notable exception last week as it forecast third quarter operating profit below Wall Street estimates. The host of new tariffs Trump unveiled last week point to the shifting trade landscape and potential impact on economic growth. "Global growth in 2026 could be revitalized if trade and tariff uncertainty recedes, as businesses would be better able to make hiring and investment decisions," said Michelle Gibley, director of international research at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, in a recent analysis. "However, the impacts at the individual industry and company levels could vary." By definition, tariffs are paid by the importer of the good, or U.S. companies in the case of tariffs levied by the U.S.
- Breadth rolls back in sentiment shift: Earlier this summer, market breadth expanded in a sign that the rally sparked buying in a variety of sectors. Over the last two weeks, breadth lost ground and by Friday just 45% of S&P 500 stocks traded above their 50-day moving averages, down from the peak of 75% recorded in mid-July. That's a sharp decline in a short time and suggests risk appetite retreating. That's also showing up in lower Treasury yields and last week's sector board, where defensive utilities led and energy and consumer staples also were near the top. Cryptocurrencies also felt pressured last week as the risk-on momentum that drove them to all-time highs in July appeared to dry up a bit.
- Trump's possible China trip scrutinized for corporate clues: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is recruiting CEOs for a potential delegation to join President Trump's meeting with President Xi, The New York Times reported, and the passenger list could have market implications. Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang's recently went to China after meeting in the White House with Trump. On the trip, Huang announced the company would once again be able to sell H20 chips to China, a coup after it lost billions earlier this year due to Trump's export controls. Amazon's CEO recently met with Trump, too. Whether Trump makes the trip could depend on progress in Sweden, where the countries' trade representatives hammer out the details of their framework agreement this week. The deadline is August 12 but there's talk it could be pushed back 90 days. One item that's apparently not negotiable, according to China, is the U.S. demand that China curb purchases of Russian oil. Insistence on that, China's news media said, could crater the entire framework. U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports include a 20% "fentanyl" penalty that China wants removed.
On the move
- On Friday, Amazon (AMZN) plunged 8%. Though Amazon did forecast better-than-expected revenue for the current quarter, its operating profit estimate and cloud growth appeared to disappoint investors.
- Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) was down 0.6% in early market trading as Warren Buffett’s company reported a $3.8 billion impairment on its Kraft Heinz (KHC) stock sell, which may affect the company's earnings.
- Bitcoin (/BTC) slid 3.3% on Friday filling its early July price gap and heading towards its previous resistance level of $110,000, which may act as support if it continues to slide. Stocks related to crypto, including Strategy (MSTR) and Coinbase (COIN), were down 8.77% and 16.7%, respectively. BTC is starting the week in bullish territory, however, bouncing back more than a percent to approach the $115,000 level.
- Blade Air Mobility (BLDE) rallied 16% in premarket trading on a Bloomberg report that Joby Aviation (JOBY) was looking to acquire the helicopter ride-share company. JOBY rose 5%.
- CommScope (COMM) rocketed 42% before the open on news that it had reached a cash deal to sell its broadband connectivity division for $10.5 billion to Amphenol (APH). APH rose 4%.
- Exxon Mobil (XOM) dropped nearly 2% on Friday despite stronger-than-expected earnings. Cost savings helped the company on the bottom line even as revenue fell more than 12% from a year earlier due partly to cheaper oil. Competitor Chevron (CVX) slid slightly after their earnings beat.
- Kodiak Gas (KGS) will be joining the S&P Small Cap 600 Index, news which caused it to rise 5% ahead of the opening bell.
- Moderna (MRNA) tumbled nearly 8% on Friday despite beating analysts' earnings and revenue expectations. Guidance appeared to disappoint.
- Opendoor (OPEN) rose 14% during early morning action on news that the company regained compliance with the Nasdaq exchange.
- Spotify (SPOT) gained 3% in early action on reports that the company would increase the monthly cost of its premium subscription.
- Steelcase (SCS) shot 45% higher ahead of the opening bell on news that HNI (HNI) will buy the company. HNI fell 20%.
- The CME FedWatch Tool was projecting a 66% chance of the fed funds rate being down half a point in October.
More insights from Schwab
Going back to basics when volatility rears: Volatility can lead to profits, but if it's elevated for an extended period, it can also be a sign of a more deeply rooted market shift. If so, there are a few ways traders can adopt a more defensive approach.
Chart of the day
Data source: S&P Dow Jones Indicies. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
Some investors were putting up their defenses in July by purchasing utility stocks. The utilities sector is commonly seen by many investors as a safe haven during market trouble. The Utilities Select Sector Index ($IXU) broke resistance in mid-July, which many technicians see as a bullish sign for the sector. The basing pattern range was about 100 points, which technicians may use to set a target price around 940.
The week ahead
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Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument.
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