Powell Time: Fed Chair Speaks After Rally Stalls

Here is the morning Schwab Market Update for Friday, August 22. This week's big event is upon us. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell takes the podium at 10 a.m. ET, though it seems unlikely he'll give much confirmation in terms of policy outlook. Other Fed speakers this week expressed hesitance about rate cuts, with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee calling last month's Producer Price Index (PPI) "a dangerous data point" and saying the September Fed meeting is "live"—meaning a decision isn't pre-ordained. Stocks gained before Powell but remain lower for the week after tech hit a pothole.

"Barring a hot print by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation reading next week and/or a stronger-than-expected set of readings on labor market conditions, we are still penciling in a September rate cut of 25 basis points," said Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Schwab. "We don't expect Powell to reveal much in Jackson Hole; perhaps a nod to a cut in September, but that is very different than firmly committing to resuming a full-blown cutting cycle."

The S&P 500 index finished lower Thursday to post its first five-session losing streak since January following more signs of inflation in the Philadelphia Fed Index and the S&P Global PMI. It's been feast or famine for the S&P 500, which just a couple of weeks ago closed at record highs five days in a row. It's not unusual to see consolidation ahead of a key Powell speech, especially after record highs and at this seasonally soft time of year. Most of the recent weakness reflects rotation out of the heavily capitalized tech and communication services, giving the market a more defensive tone as investors embrace previously unloved areas like health care, staples and real estate.

Three things to watch

Central bank outlooks beyond Fed: It's not just Powell speaking at Jackson Hole. The heads of the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE), and Bank of Japan (BoJ) also speak. "The BoJ may keep a rate hike on the table for October but likely needs further economic improvement," said Michelle Gibley, director of international research at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. "Disagreement at the Bank of England resulted in the need for two rounds of votes to cut rates at its August meeting, as inflation has been persistently high." Global PMI readings impressed yesterday and may affect rate timing. "Every region reported an improvement at the composite level," Gibley said. "This is a very rare occurrence as usually there are some moves in different directions. This is still a preliminary reading, and not all economies report flash figures—notably China." The stronger PMIs complicate the course of monetary policy for the ECB and BOE, which may wait longer to cut rates, Gibley added.

Big retailer observes customer behavior: Walmart (WMT) delivered a rare earnings miss yesterday. Still, its reputation as a low-cost retailer appears to be attracting higher-income customers away from retailers like Target (TGT). That trend could accelerate if tariff headwinds keep prices rising across the retail space, but eventually even discount retailers may run low on price elasticity after four years of inflation headaches. Walmart did note in its call that customers from high-income households appear less sensitive than middle- and lower-income households to rising prices in certain discretionary categories. And it says it's tried to keep prices low, but its costs keep rising. The company managed to cut prices this year from last for back-to-school items and saw good demand in that area. A strong back-to-school season is often a harbinger for a strong holiday shopping season, the company noted. And it expects to have one.

Crude below key level: As European and U.S. leaders gathered in Washington earlier this week to discuss Ukraine, crude oil prices edged to their lowest point in more than two months below $63 per barrel for U.S. crude oil futures (/CL) before rebounding the last few days. Hopes for an end to the conflict likely drove weakness, but sometimes low prices are the "cure for low prices," as the old trading pit saying goes. In this case, a crude price above $65 per barrel appears to be needed for U.S. fracking firms to turn a profit, meaning they might cut their drilling if prices fall further. In the longer term, this could shrink supplies and help support prices. The latest Baker Hughes U.S. rig count showed 539 active rigs, down 47 from a year ago. Halliburton (HAL), perhaps the best-known fracking stock, is down 20% over the last six months and said on its last earnings call it's taking some equipment out of service as customers cut back, Bloomberg reported. 
    
On the move
Nvidia (NVDA) fell 1.2% in pre-market trading. A report in The Information said Nvidia instructed some component suppliers to stop production related to the H20 AI chip--the less powerful chip Nvidia recently got re-approved to sell in China.  Beijing has urged companies not to use it, citing security concerns. The production halt by some suppliers could reflect lack of demand in China for the product, Bloomberg reported, but CEO Jensen Huang told reporters Friday that Nvidia's considering a potential follow-up to the H20 for China and that there are no "security backdoors" in the H20.

Tech stocks continued backtracking Thursday and are now down six of the last seven sessions amid profit taking, tariffs, and concerns about possible higher rates for longer. Six of the Magnificent Seven fell yesterday.

Ross Stores (ROST) climbed 2.55% after reporting earnings per share that topped analysts' estimates and in-line revenues. Its third quarter earnings guidance was below consensus and its fourth quarter guidance was above consensus.

Lucid (LCID) dropped more than 2% after it announced a reverse stock split.

Intuit (INTU) dropped 6.4% in the early going. The company topped earnings expectations but disappointed with guidance, Barron's reported.

Workday (WDAY) fell 4.5% in pre-market trading despite beating earnings expectations as it guided for third quarter results that are slightly below Wall Street's consensus.

BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) fell 1.8% in early action as earnings and revenue missed analysts' expectations. It did maintain its sales outlook and raised fiscal year earnings guidance.

Individual stock weakness yesterday hit consumer-facing sectors and included shares of Walmart (WMT), United Airlines (UAL), Costco (COST), Dollar General (DG), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Norwegian Cruises (NCLH), and Target (TGT). Walmart's earnings miss and worries that higher rates for longer might depress consumer spending appeared to hurt the consumer discretionary and staples sectors.

Starbucks (SBUX) rose 0.9% in pre-market action after Reuters reported that Starbucks expects non-binding bids for a stake in its China business within two weeks. It has said it's not selling the full business.

Technically, the S&P 500 index closed just below its 20-day moving average of 6,381 Thursday for the first time since August 1. This support point has been important through the last three months, and a previous close below it saw the index quickly bounce back. An area to watch if there's more selling is between 6,290 and 6,315, Briefing.com said..

Heading into Powell's speech, the CME FedWatch Tool puts odds of a September rate cut at 71.5%, with 28.5% chances of no move. The tool still builds in a high likelihood of at least two rate cuts by year-end.

More insights from Schwab
Jackson Hole update: Get observations on the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting, inflation, and what data to watch next week in the latest Schwab On Investing podcast featuring Sonders and our chief fixed income strategist Kathy Jones. The podcast also offers an update on muni bonds from another Schwab colleague of mine, Cooper Howard.

Options expiration guide: Traders new to options need to learn how to navigate options expiration, especially how exercise and assignment work, before trading. Schwab's latest guide to options expirations basics goes over definitions, expiration day scenarios, and other things beginners (and veterans) should know.

Bucket approach to retirement: You've heard of bucket lists but now learn about phasing retirement with a bucket drawdown strategy. This plan, outlined in Schwab's new article on retirement income, means holding three different buckets of money, or separate asset accounts, for retirement.

The week ahead

August 25: July new home sales.
August 26: July Durable goods, August consumer confidence, and expected earnings from MongoDB (MDB) and Box (BOX).
August 27: Expected earnings from Nvidia (NVDA), Kohl's (KSS), CrowdStrike (CRWD), Snowflake (SNOW), HP (HPQ), Five Below (FIVE), and Urban Outfitters (URBN).
August 28: Second quarter GDP second estimate and expected earnings from Dell (DELL), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Autodesk (ADSK), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Gap (GAP), and Petco (WOOF).
August 29: July PCE prices, July core PCE prices, July personal spending, July personal income, University of Michigan final August Consumer Sentiment, and expected earnings from Alibaba (BABA).