Jobs Numbers Shut Down, Stocks Rise Regardless
Though the shutdown canceled today's monthly jobs report, stocks continued to power higher thanks to the risk-on trade around AI. Services data loom shortly after the open.
Published as of: October 3, 2025, 9:09 a.m. ET
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Disclosure
Major index values are as of Thursday's close; others are as of 8:40 a.m. ET.
(Friday market open) It's the first Friday of the month, but thanks to the shutdown in Washington, investors won't get their usual dose of jobs data. Stocks rose again despite congressional leaders saying there won't be a vote to break the logjam today or over the weekend. An impasse that lasts through mid-month would likely put October data collection in jeopardy, meaning investors could face the first Friday of November with no jobs report, as well.
There is data today, however, with the ISM Services PMI® at 10 a.m. ET. The services sector grew for three consecutive months through August as consumers continued to spend despite a soft labor market and pressure from inflation. Consensus expects the September reading to be in line with the prior month, but still in expansion territory at 52% (a reading of 50% or above is needed to show expansion). While services likely held up in September, that was before the shutdown. The roughly 750,000 federal workers currently being furloughed, unpaid, or laid off entirely could affect discretionary spending and retail sales numbers as consumer-facing firms enter the all-important fourth quarter.
Despite uncertainty on The Hill—and the lack of weekly jobless claims numbers and August factory orders—the S&P 500 index reached another record of 6731.94 and closed 0.1% higher on Thursday, off its opening peak. Strength was narrow, though, as seven of 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in the red. Energy and consumer discretionary brought up the rear, while materials, information technology, and industrials helped bolster broader market indexes as the AI-driven rally continued. After the weekend, focus could linger on D.C., with key data and earnings sparse Monday and Tuesday.
Three things to watch
- Target inflation change contemplated: Several Federal Reserve speakers over the last week suggested more cuts might not be needed as inflation continues to trend near 3%. Relatively solid recent economic data could reflect a "k-shaped" scenario, meaning strong spending by higher-tier income groups and weaker spending by less well-off consumers. The dilemma for the Fed is that this is happening even as job growth slows, possibly hurting consumers on the lower end who may not hold stocks. The heavy spending seen in recent months could help explain why the annual core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—which removes food and energy—remains near 3% and hasn't dipped below 2.6% in any of the last 12 months, compared with the Fed's 2% target. Which raises the question of how committed the Fed ultimately is to 2%, especially if jobs growth struggles. Last week, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he'd be open to using a range, suggesting 1.75% to 2.25%, rather than a specific inflation target. Two other Fed policy makers also discussed a range last week, Bloomberg reported, possibly signaling that the Fed is putting that idea out for a reaction. Meanwhile, a continued shutdown and lack of federal data will make the central bank's job more challenging. "The Fed will likely have to gather information from private surveys, like Wednesday's ADP report, which showed some softness in the labor market," said Cooper Howard, director, fixed income strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.
- All that glitters…: Gold has rallied more than 45% year to date, hitting record highs and closing in on the $4,000-per-ounce mark amid expectations that falling interest rates will further lift prices. According to Ryan Hinsen, derivatives manager at Schwab, the 14-day RSI measure has tagged gold futures as overbought since early September, though data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) Commitment of Traders report suggests the net-long position is not at a peak. The yellow metal paused its rally on Thursday, however, dropping 0.8% after comments from Dallas Fed President Laurie Logan. Logan urged caution on further interest rate cuts, arguing that the Fed can't ease financial conditions too significantly without risking price stability that could force a painful course reversal. For more insights into the Fed's current outlook, investors will watch another speech from Logan this afternoon, as well as comments from Fed Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson.
- Concentration remains a risk: The top handful of S&P 500 stocks account for a historically high share of total market capitalization and index returns. "This dynamic can distort perceptions of market health, as index gains may mask underlying weakness among the majority of constituents," said Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Schwab. That's why it's important to track breadth indicators like the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their respective 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Fifty-day breadth has been remarkably steady and was 55% earlier this week, above the historic average near 50%. This suggests that even though the biggest tech and communication services stocks dominate, the market reflects strength in other areas as well. On the other hand, even sectors like industrials and utilities benefit to some degree from heavy mega-cap spending on AI that drives the tech sector higher. That could mean a tech sell-off—if it comes—wouldn't hurt tech alone. The S&P 500's current status—with the Magnificent Seven accounting for a nearly 34% share of market capitalization—accompanies all-time high earnings weight as a share of the S&P 500 for those firms. This suggests that the current concentration isn't unjustified, Gordon added.
On the move
- Against the backdrop of a soon-to-expire federal EV tax credit, Tesla (TSLA) announced strong vehicle delivery figures on Thursday. Total deliveries rose 7% from a year ago to exceed Wall Street's consensus estimate. Despite the bullish news, Tesla stock fell 5.1% on Thursday but shares are still up roughly 8% year to date and 69% year over year. Shares popped more than 1% this morning.
- Applied Materials (AMAT) fell more than 2% this morning after the chip maker said new U.S. export rules would reduce its fourth-quarter revenue and its 2026 revenue, Barron's reported. Lam Research (LRCX) also fell on the news, highlighting the risk to revenue from China for this sector.
- Apple (AAPL) fell 1% in early trading after Jefferies downgraded its rating to Underperform from Hold. The covering analyst thinks expectations for the forthcoming foldable iPhone are too high, Barron's reported.
- Boeing (BA) may delay commercial service via its 777X until 2027, not 2026 as previously predicted, according to sources. A spokeswoman for the aeronautic giant declined to comment, citing a quiet period ahead of earnings later this month. The stock ended Thursday up 1% and remained down early Friday.
- Fair Issac (FICO) rallied throughout Thursday's session after announcing its direct-licensing program. The stock closed nearly 18% higher to top the S&P 500 and is up again today.
- Rivian (RIVN) plunged 7% yesterday but moved slightly higher this morning. Thursday's drop came despite third-quarter deliveries rising almost 32% and beating analysts' estimates, according to Barron's. But guidance disappointed.
- Rumble (RUM) soared 9% early today on news that the video sharing platform and cloud services provider was entering a partnership with Perplexity, an AI-powered answer tool.
- USA Rare Earth (USAR) rose 12% this morning as CNBC reported that the miner is in close talks with the White House.
- The CME FedWatch Tool still prices in a 98% chance of a rate cut later this month, slipping slightly from the 100% projected earlier in the week. Chances of two cuts before year-end are nearly 90%.
- Bitcoin (/BTC) surmounted the $120,000 mark Thursday for the first time since mid-August, but fell slightly this morning. Crypto-linked stocks Coinbase (COIN) and Strategy (MSTR) rallied 7.5% and 4.1%, respectively, in Thursday's trading and are flat to slightly higher in pre-market activity.
More insights from Schwab
Uncle Sam visits Wall Street: In an unconventional move, the U.S. government recently acquired shares of Intel (INTC) and made a deal with Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to profit from the chip makers' China-based revenue. While direct stakes in companies are typically rare, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said additional deals may be on the horizon. Learn more about what this could mean for companies and their shareholders.
Corporate credit check: In the latest Schwab OnInvesting podcast, join Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders and Chief Fixed Income Strategist Kathy Jones as they provide insight on corporate credit, private credit, the auto industry, ratings agencies and more. They also discuss implications of the government shutdown on employment data and the Fed.
Chart of the day
Data source: CBOE, S&P Dow Jones Indices. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
Since its tariff-related spike in early April, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX—candlesticks) has been trending gradually lower in a series of higher lows (white circles). Since the end of August, the so-called "fear gauge" has been consolidating in a tight range and has so far been little impacted by news out of Washington. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index (purple line) continues to eye new highs, hitting another fresh peak above 6,730 in intraday trading on Thursday.
The week ahead
Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.
October 6: Expected earnings from Constellation Brands (STZ).
October 7: Expected earnings from McCormick (MKC).
October 8: FOMC meeting minutes.
October 9: Expected earnings from Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP), and Levi Strauss (LEVI).
October 10: October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment—preliminary.
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