Here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Wednesday, July 9:
Investors get a look behind the scenes at the Federal Reserve this afternoon with minutes from the last rate-setting meeting. The Fed left rates unchanged in June, but minutes could provide a better sense of where policy makers stood as they formulated their expectations for coming months.
"We expect the Fed to cut rates one to two times later this year depending on the data," said Cooper Howard, director, fixed income strategy, at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. "The minutes aren’t likely to change that thinking but they could shed some light on what the Fed is watching."
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has mostly voted unanimously on rate moves over the last few years, but today's minutes could help confirm if dissent is brewing. Some policy makers said last month they could see the way toward a July rate cut, but seven said they don't expect any rate cuts at all this year. It's worth noting that the minutes – due at 2 p.m. ET -- reflect what Fed officials knew in mid-June before last week's June nonfarm payrolls report.
The report showed solid jobs growth of 147,000 and a lower unemployment rate of 4.1%, masking some weakness underneath. Services jobs – which often pay less than goods-producing positions – led gains in June, and government job growth also was strong. But manufacturing job growth was negative and the lower-paying leisure and hospitality sector gained. Also, labor force participation fell for the second month in a row, which may help explain why unemployment is down.
Chances of a July rate cut fell below 5% this week after the report, and odds of at least one cut by September tracked lower but remain relatively firm at around 65%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Still, that's down from 90% and above before the jobs report. Today's minutes could provide a sense of how the Fed views labor trends heading into the second half.
After yesterday's relatively weak 3-year Treasury note auction, today brings a 10-year note offering. The 3-year note auction stumbled on lower demand from indirect bidders. More signs of soft demand today might send yields higher, possibly hurting stocks. The 4.5% level for the 10-year note is likely a place to watch on the charts after it rose above 4.4% yesterday and set two-week highs.
Anything above 4.5% might raise concerns and potentially put a brake on the stock market rally. Over the last few weeks, 4.4% has seemed like a "magnet" for the 10-year yield, said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab. "The market seems to find some kind of equilibrium there," she added, saying auction demand is likely to remain solid at current yield levels.
The yield curve is likely to steepen, led by lower short-term rates, Schwab's Howard said. Longer-term rates will likely remain anchored due to trade uncertainty and higher global yields.
Next week brings June inflation and retail sales data along with the unofficial start of earnings season as big banks begin sharing their results Tuesday.
"Guidance and earnings surprises will take on heightened importance, as markets remain sensitive to forward-looking commentary, especially amid policy uncertainty and instability related to trade, tariffs, and interest rates," said Schwab Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders and Kevin Gordon, director, senior investment strategist. "There is also increased attention being given to stocks of companies that don't meet or beat consensus estimates."
Another element to monitor is the rate of "beats" by revenue versus earnings. Though only a handful of S&P companies have shared second quarter results to date, they tended to beat estimates more on the revenue side than the earnings side. "It's too early to state with any certainty, but what would be suggested by a continued divergence between the two is that profit margins may be coming under increasing policy-related pressure," Sonders and Gordon noted.
Delta Air Lines is scheduled to report earnings first thing Thursday. One potential headwind is falling tourist traffic from other countries to the U.S., reflecting international anger over U.S. trade and other policies. However, Delta recently said it expected a solid summer travel season. More airline earnings arrive next week.
Major indexes had a lackluster Tuesday amid continued uncertainty about tariff policy and as investors prepared for next week's start of earnings season. Energy climbed as crude oil prices rose, while materials stocks, including mining companies, also saw some shine. This came as copper prices roared to double-digit gains after President Trump said he'd impose a 50% tariff on =copper imports. This may be good news for domestic producers of the commodity but bad news for many companies – including info tech firms – that rely on copper sourced outside the U.S.
Trump also said he's considering very high rates -possibly as much as 200% -- on pharmaceutical imports, CNBC reported. Health care shares rose Tuesday, but such tariffs might be tough for many U.S. pharma firms that manufacture in other countries. Semiconductors showed some resilience.
Crude oil tested two-weeks high despite concerns that higher tariffs could slow economic activity, including U.S. import demand. The rally also comes as OPEC and its allies plan more output hikes.
Considering the slow start for major indexes this week, it's somewhat surprising that very few large S&P 500 or Nasdaq stocks fell more than 3% Tuesday. It was an "inside" day on the charts for the S&P 500, meaning it traded between Monday's high and low without touching either. This could indicate participants being uncertain of direction. Earnings next week could help set the tone.
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) fell below 17 yesterday, not far above the recent long-term low just above 16. Continued weakness in VIX could potentially support stocks.
Technically, there was no late burst of buying Tuesday, as there was Monday. Still, the S&P 500 remained above Monday's intraday low of 6,201 and above its 20-day moving average, suggesting there may not be much buying interest but sellers are also holding back.
In corporate news, Amazon's "Prime Day" shopping event began yesterday and runs through the end of the week, extending what used to be a one-day sale. Prime Day – or is it "Prime Week?" -- could bring in around $12.9 billion, a record, according to Barron's. Some items highlighted on Amazon's home page Tuesday included cordless vacuums, stereo speakers, tablets, and doorbells. Intel climbed after announcing layoffs of 500 employees, Bloomberg reported.
The latest Schwab Trading Activity Index™ (STAX) climbed slightly to 40.66 in June, up from a two-year low of 39.68 in May. The index, which analyzes trading activity from millions of Schwab client accounts, remains low versus historic averages. One theme the report showed is a rotation away from tech stocks and into the industrial and consumer discretionary sectors. Tech has now seen strong selling by clients almost continuously since late last year and was the biggest net-sell sector on a dollar basis for the fifth month in a row.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average® ($DJI) fell 165.60 points Tuesday (-0.37%) to 44,240.76; the S&P 500 index (SPX) dropped 4.46 points (-0.07%) to 6,225.52, and the Nasdaq Composite® ($COMP) added 5.95 points (0.03%) to 20,418.46.
