Well, hello everyone. Welcome to a brand new year. I know when you're saying brand new year, Barb, it's already the 14th, but it is a new year for Schwab Coaching and our webcast series, and I've been away. So, I consider this like the launch of the new 'Getting Started with Technical Analysis' series. Cameron May and I have switched places, and he will now be teaching 'Getting Started with Options,' and I will be taking over this 'Getting Started with Technical Analysis.' So, for this class, we're going to spend a few minutes talking about what this class is going to look like in 2025. It may look a little different than it did in previous years because every coach brings their own flair. But, you know, the title is getting started with technical analysis.
So we're going to be talking about, you know, the fundamentals of technical analysis, if you will, not to be confused with fundamentals in stock investing, which is, you know, or in investing, which is a different topic altogether. But let's get through our important information so that we can kind of get into the heart of the discussion. In this class, we will be looking. At an example, trades each and every week, I really believe in the power of taking what we're learning and applying it, then checking back and and seeing how it worked out. So, if you are not following me in the land of X, I encourage you to do so; both Ben and I, and we've got Ben Watson with us in the chat today. He's a friend and a fellow coach.
If you've gone to a live event, you've had the pleasure of seeing Ben in action on stage; and he is fantastic. So, if you haven't gone to a live event, you may want to do that also. But Ben's handle on Twitter is or on X is BenWatsonCS for Charles Schwab; mine is BarbArmstrongCS. I hope you'll take advantage of the wealth of things that we are posting there. So, lots of stuff you won't want to miss. Everything we do in this class is for information and education purposes only. We will look at example trades, as I said. Each. And every week, but none of that is to be construed as a recommendation on the part of Schwab or myself; know that when we look at charts, we're looking at past performance in order to make a more informed decision on what might happen going forward.
But past performance is no guarantee of future results. Know that all investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Stop-loss orders don't guarantee that we're going to get out at a particular price. This year, we will be incorporating more options into this into this getting started with technical analysis, particularly if the market spends a bit of time pulling back or moving to the downside. But know that options carry a high level of risk and aren't suitable for all investors. And, you know, if we are talking about an option strategy that is new to you, I encourage you to check out the. And I can see that we have a lot of who I affectionately call the usual suspects in the class today, along with some, some names that I'm not as familiar with, but I love that you guys help bring this class to life by showing up here live every Tuesday at 2 o'clock Eastern.
So hello to Jack and Paul and Jay and Randy and AJ and Austin, and Jim and Rojo and AP 514, who always texts my mascot who lives in Maui. So I didn't run into you, but it was great to be on your turf for a week. I've got to say hello to Vlad and David and Sharon and the rest of the gang. Thank you all for being here. So what are we going to talk about today? Well, we're going to talk about the what and the why of technical analysis. Why, you know, it's important to consider technical analysis. And then we're going to go out and we're going to as we're having this conversation, we are going to look at a lot of examples on the charts.
And one of the things that I'm going to focus on is the basics. And my analogy is that if I was teaching you how to drive, what do you think are some of the critical things if you're teaching somebody brand new how to drive? Well, you want to make sure that they understand the difference between the accelerator and the brake. And that if you hit the brakes hard, you're going to come to a stop way faster than, you know, if you're applying gentle pressure, you know, how the accelerator works. The difference is, you know, in the signage we see on the road. You know, what does a stop sign mean? What does yield mean? How do you merge into traffic? All of those kinds of things.
You know, what we are not going to talk about in this class is how a fuel injection system works versus a carburetor or how the pistons in an engine work. First of all, I'd be in way over my head. Secondly, if you're interested in that kind of thing from a technical perspective, get the to the advanced options class. We're also not going to talk about obscure indicators. You know, the very first week I worked with Schwab, somebody called in used to be able to talk to coaches one on one and asked me about the Darvis indicators. I had no clue. So, I said, 'I'm sorry, I'm not familiar with that. I'll have to call you back. It was actually an indicator that was developed by a ballroom dancer.
But I had never used that indicator. So, I'm not going to talk to you about indicators that I think you're less likely to use as fascinating as they may be. And you may be saying, 'Hey, you need to look at that indicator more thoroughly.' And maybe I do. But we're going to really focus on the basics here. But you know what? I've been focusing on the basics since I started back as a client in 2011. And I will tell you that it was looking at the charts that had me so excited my car could have about driven itself home.' And that was long before the days of, you know, driverless cars back in 2011, because I just found it very empowering and quite fascinating.
So, yeah, we're going to that's what our focus is going to be in this class. But, you know, when you talk about the basics, well, what does that include? Well, let me bring up my drawing tool. And I'm just going to type a few things on our agenda here. And let's go to yellow so that that will show up. So, oops, didn't switch for me. Okay, just that this doesn't want to play nice. Hey, hold on. I think it did know I've gone away or something. Hey. This is so weird. Okay, there we go. Now we're on to yellow. Okay. So we're going to talk about things like trend. And, you know, there's only three ways trend can move: right up, down, and sideways.
And we're going to spend some time today looking at stocks that are moving up, some that are moving down, and some that are looking sideways. And then what do we do with stocks that are trending in those directions? How can we as investors or traders who want to make money take advantage of that? We are going to look at things like support and resistance, which I always think of as floors. So the floor is your support level and ceilings. And then we're going to look at things like, you know, we're going to look at things like, you know, we're going to look at things like, you know, we're going to look at things like, you know, we're going to spend a lot of time looking at candlestick patterns.
This is something else that I think is pretty fascinating. I'm going to start posting on X, like summary pages of candlestick patterns. Again, those have always been a, a huge, huge hit. So we're going to talk about that. We are going to talk about patterns. You know, it's so. So not only a candlesticks and candlestick patterns and what makes up candlesticks, but patterns such as trend reversal patterns. So at the, in the fourth quarter of last year, we saw a lot of inverted head and shoulders patterns, which is a, that bullish pattern. When it breaks out, we saw a lot of cup and handle patterns. So, you know, we might be looking at, so as an example, cup and handle; and why does it not want to let me type 'cup and handle' inverse head and shoulders?
Now, what some may be starting to see now is some regular head and shoulders patterns, which is a bearish configuration or regular head and shoulders patterns. We're going to look for, breakout patterns. So both breakouts above resistance below support or diagonal. And this is one that sometimes people miss. Yeah. Support and resistance supply and demand. We're going to look at flag patterns, and you're saying like, 'Is all of this basic stuff?' Yes. It kind of is, but just because it's basic doesn't mean it's not complicated. And the basics are important. Like if I live in the U. S. and I say, 'Okay, you're supposed to drive on the right-hand side of the road,' and then you go to Europe and you just think, 'Well, that, you know, applies everywhere you go all over the world.' You're going to get yourself into a world of hurt if you start driving on the right side of the road in England, because the rules are different.
And so, in some market conditions, sometimes the rules might be different, you know, three years ago, whichever year that was when the markets, you know, the S& P was down 18% in one year, and the NASDAQ was down almost 30. You know, we may have, you know, traded a little differently than we did last year when it was the flip, and both the NASDAQ and the S& P were up over 20. And, and so, you know, we will look at these patterns in the context of what is going on in, in the market. And there are both bull flag patterns, which are bullish, and there are bear flag patterns. And I'm sure I haven't got all of these covered every single thing that we're, we'll be talking about.
But there's lots, you know, there's penance and, and we'll be looking at some of those. And then there's variations on penance. There can be penance that are kind of moving to the upside and penance that are consolidating to the downside. And then penance that are kind of moving in, in a sideways pattern. So there is a lot for, for us to look at. And over this year, we're going to spend together. We're going to, you know, we're going to look at all of these topics and more. Okay. So having said all of that, let me wipe my slate clean. We're going to shake the Etch A Sketch. And as you know, we love to do; we are going to go out and we're going to start with having a quick look at what's going in the markets overall, what's going on in the markets.
And if we start with the, did I put, yeah, I did. Okay. If we look at what's going on in the S& P 500, and, and I want this to be participatory. So when you look at this, what do you see in, in a longer term? Go ahead and type that in because I came over here. Do you see where patterns are? And then if we click on this, show prices percentage under patterns, I'm going to click that link because I have this little script up here. And if you want to use that, it's posted at the top of my Twitter feed. But if we look at this, we can see that over the last 12 months, the S& P 500 is up about 24%, which is pretty remarkable.
I mean, that is, it's definitely uptrending. But if we look at, you know, since if we come here to November 6th, we had an all-time high for this index back on December 6th. But those that are, are cup half-empty people as I like to call them. Others might say, I'm a realist. You know, add whatever, put whatever name you want on top of that. But some might say, yes, Jake is saying it's been uptrending, but it's starting to move sideways. And yeah, I would agree. And in addition to the fact that it's starting to move sideways, some might say, well, remember when I talked about these different patterns, some, some might say, I, if I'm playing, I spy with my little eye, I'm seeing a bit of a head and shoulders pattern.
Now it's not perfect, but you know, here's the head. Here's the first shoulder, your shoulder number two. And then we've broken below that. Now, if we break below that, some might a technician, which is what we are developing. The skill of being might measure this distance and say, well, if, if I see that this has moved this far, I'm expecting if it breaks below it, it could move a similar amount. Now others will look at this and say, but it's hit this hundred-day moving average. So, it kissed it on Thursday, Friday; it opened below, then rallied above, and it's coming up. So, you know, and they might say, you know, this index has been, you know, this has been, this has been holding this moving average as a support level.
So, I wouldn't exactly start placing bearish trades yet. And sometimes when we have a break out, you know, whether it is below a support level, you know, some might argue that this, sometimes it's a breakout and sometimes it's a fake out. Now there's a bit of an art to technical analysis. And so some might say, well, you have based your line based on where this previous high is. But when I draw my line, I kind of draw it based on, you know, the low of the first and some will include wicks and some won't. And so if we do it based on the wicks and we might draw it down here and, and so then it looks less like a breach, doesn't it? And so technical analysis, you know, there is a lot of this.
Things are in the eye of the beholder. Okay. But there is, you know, we, we are watching this closely when we look at the NASDAQ, you know, it too, you know, even with this recent pullback, you know, up 24%, you know, I mean, at one point it was up 31% in the last year, or sorry, 24% over the last year. And we had an, and here's an example of, we had this high, lower, high, lower, high. And then we had this diagonal resistance breakout. And how long did that last? One day. So some people will say, you want to wait for something to cross, cross the river, which is this diagonal resistance breakout, and then come back and test the ice. And if it tests and it bounces, then it's a true breakout.
Otherwise it's a fake out. So here, this goes into the fake out category thus far. And has it, it broken back out above this diagonal resistance line? It has not. And so what might we be doing? Exercising patients. Yeah. How about the Dow? Well, again, the Dow up 13% still, even though, you know, at one point it was up 20, you know, in the last year. So it's given back, you know, a significant percentage of its gains in the last year. And if we were to draw, you might say, well, these lines don't matter as much at the moment. So we could just clear our drawing set. And if we were as technicians looking at this, what kind of line might we draw?
Well, we might draw a diagonal line and you're just, it doesn't have to be perfect. You're just kind of trying to touch as many things as you can, candles as you can. So are we looking for a diagonal resistance breakout? We are. Have we seen it yet? We have not. Jim, I'll let you in with a late pass today, but I'll be watching. Okay. And here's our Russell. You know, it's just too. Like up 15% was up 26. So like, that's a major oww. Like that's a big pullback. Right. And again, are we looking for a bit of a diagonal resistance breakout here? Yeah. And you can see, and some might say, you know, well, we don't really need this line on right now.
Some might argue that, but we've seen it come back down three times, you know, and, and if it breaks below this line, there might be cause for consternation as well. But, but overall, it's not as clean and tidy and uptrend as the other indexes. We're, you know, a lot of, you know, I call this more of a Tom's chart. You know, if one were trading this index, one might have, you know, have seen, you know, have been reaching for the Tom's more often than you would have with the others. And, and, you know, I, I really liked this point. So AP 514, I know some of you guys understand a lot of this stuff and, and you could perhaps be teaching it saying, I hope this isn't a bare fact, I hope this isn't a flag, and it could be, and what is a bear flag and indication of, well, something that's pulling back and maybe continuing to pull back. So, you know, that would look, let me grab my drawing tool.
You know, we had this pull back here and then it rallied and then it pulled back and then it rallied. Now this was a similar high. You know, but now it's pulled back and it's rallied. So is it going to continue to come up or, you know, might it start to come back down again? Okay. So the bulls would hope that this is not a bear flag, that it's bouncing off this and it might consolidate and then start to move to the upside. And we won't know which way it's going to go until it gets there. But one thing, looking at these charts, one might expect to see is that the VIX might be rising. And we're sitting at 18. 5. And so when we look at this, like a lot of the last year, it was sitting under that.
You know, so it's at the higher end of the range, you know, that we've seen for most of the last year, even though it has pulled back a bit yesterday. And it's, it's pulling back a bit today, but at 18, you know, if we draw a line here, if we take this 23 line and we change it to 18, and then we extend it, you know, we have spent more time underneath that 18 than we have above it, haven't we? You know, the majority of the year has been lower. So volatility is, is feeling a little higher. So I'm saying, you know, I don't understand as a new trader, I'm finding it hard to get going.
And, you know, I, I feel your pain because when you don't understand, or if you're looking at too many things and you're confused, the confused mind tends to say no and do, and do nothing. And so what I encourage you to do is just keep coming back. There's a getting started with technical analysis, which you're in right now. There's also a getting started with stock investing, which is now being taught by Kevin Horner. And if you want to see those classes, let me just, so if you want to see what's up and I posted at the top of this, and I will post in this, in the show notes down below, if you're watching this live. So on, I believe it's on Thursdays, getting started with stock investing is at three o'clock to three 45 Eastern on Thursdays.
If you're saying, well, I love Kevin Horner. I'd like to see what he teaches, or I love Ben. You can pick a particular coach. So you could say, oh, I just want to see the classes that Ben is teaching. And so we can see that, you know, this week, he's teaching trading index options, trading futures on Thursday, market movers on Friday, which is kind of like a weekend review, which is, which is awesome. Yeah. And, like, somebody said, take as much time as you need. And don't think, if after one or two months that you haven't got this nailed that, that you just don't have the kind of mind for it. Like, I started as a client in 2011, and I committed to spending an hour a day, five days a week.
Sometimes I do some binge learning on the weekends, but I'd spend an, I invested an hour or two hours a day and I am still learning. Like, make no mistake; I am still along with you figuring this stuff out. And yet, and, you know, in our getting started with a smaller account, which I teach on Mondays and Fridays, I'm like, I have to do this. We have never used anything other than basic, basic stuff. You know, we, we use basic stock trades, basic option trades. It's nothing fancy. It's, it's just straightforward. It's all the stuff we're going to talk about in technical analysis. And, and you know, we place example trades. And over the last five years, we've had great success with our example trading strategies.
Now, that doesn't guarantee we're going to be successful this year. But what it does show us is that even if we're learning, you know, if we're trading with discipline, using trading plans, following those trading plans, and using just the basics of riding a bike, we are not on the BMX course. We are not doing jumps. We are not doing 360s. You know, none of that. We're doing the basics. And sometimes that's all you need. You know, so, you know, all I can say is hang in there. And then this trading price patterns, you know, is going to be a good complement to that getting started with technical analysis also. Okay. So that's that. Let's come back. Because I do want to look at some examples. And so let's look at something.
If we're looking at trend, let's look at Tesla to start. And I know that this is one that gets a lot of press. Elon Musk gets a lot of press. And if we look at this and we say, well, you know, we've seen a lot of traction on this stock, you know, since the election. But if we take a look at and you can click here on this low of 138 and come up to our high. So it's gone up, went up by 251 percent since that low. It's still up over 200 percent since this low. And if we hover over this candle, that was April 22nd when it was trading at 138. And so some traders might say, well, have we missed the move?
But if we look at since the election, you know, have we seen this, you know, a pretty dramatic move to the upside? Now, along with the rest of the market, we've seen some consolidation. We've seen some consolidation. But has this continued? You know, do we look at this and think, could this be breaking out? And so if we look at our high here and we're just trying to, you know, and some might, if you draw your mind like this, say, well, this hasn't broken out yet. Some would say because that red candle, it's where it closed. So, and so some might be trying to. They might be trying to draw based on the closes. So, that would be this one and this one. They might say this could be breaking out today.
We do have earnings coming up on January 29th. Now, others might say, well, I like this whole technical analysis thing, but what's been going on in the news with Tesla? And so if you wanted to do a quick and dirty look at the news, you could come over here. It's like, OK. It's 50,000 reservations in China on the first day. Could this help? Cybertruck comes at a cost: Tesla sells 39,000 units. But X sales took a hit. So you might look at this or you might say, you know, I believe in this company and what they're doing. It's pulled back. Here might be a buying opportunity. And some might say, well, I'd want to see more – a breakout. So you might just put this on a list. OK.
So Squawkify, Squawk City 2 is saying, when you say breaking out, do you mean breaking out to go up? Yes. Or breaking out to drop more? Well, it could go either way. But if you're looking at this and saying, here's our trend. It's. It's been up trending, right, since last April. And we did see a pullback. But it now looks like it might be moving to the upside again. And so some might say, well, it opened higher. The reason this candle is dark green is because it opened higher and it's pulled back a little bit. They might say, ah, is this a breakout or a fakeout? So they might choose to wait. OK. So, you know, we might just put this on our watch list. And say, we'll come back to this.
Now, what about Chewy? Well, Chewy also has been moving to the upside, hasn't it? It hit this low here. Again, you know, that looks like it was back in about April. It's up 148%. And it's not been a straight line to the upside, has it? But we saw this consolidation. This is a bit of a pennant pattern where we had a series of higher lows. Do you see that? So it was kind of marching up the hill. But did we have higher highs? No, we had a high and then a lower high. And then it broke out here on January 3rd. Hit a new high. And then it's been kind of consolidating. Now, we had earnings here back in December. So we don't have earnings coming up for a while.
And, you know, again, if we wanted to look at what do the analysts think? Well, Morgan Stanley raised their price target to 40 from 38. Evercore raised their price target to 47. Morgan Stanley raised their price target to 40. Mizuho raised their price target to 42. And notice what a big difference there is in targets. And these are guys that are professionals that are looking at this. Okay? So, you know, we've got Wolf upgraded price target of 42. You know, in this one, Mizuho went from 24 to 42. I mean, that's a pretty huge increase. So here's where 42 looks like. Now, is there a guarantee that it's going to go up to 42? Absolutely not. You know, just like there isn't a guarantee that it's going to go to 47 or to 40.
You know, so here somebody had their price target at 40. But if we look at the chart and we say, okay, well, we're bullish on this. It looks like the analysts, at least the ones that are listed here, are fairly bullish on this stock. And so I wouldn't mind owning some shares of Chewy. Because I see that the intermediate to longer-term trend has been uptrending. We see this diagonal resistance breakout after a short period of consolidation. And, you know, it's kind of gathering strength here. The other thing is it's already had earnings. So, the risk of a gap on earnings is at least out a little ways. Now, if we wanted to put a stop in place to help us define our risk, where might we put that stop?
Well, we might say, okay, I look at this as an old resistance line. Then I'm expecting we'll act as a new support line. So if it pulled back to this, say, $34 level or $34. 40 level, and I'm going to switch this to a calculator. Say if it pulled back to that $34. 41 level, and we're going to want to give it a little room. So if we went 3% below that, we said if it comes down to this $34. 41 level, $33. 37, that's even below the 30-day moving average. So if we put this on our chart. If you draw a line and then just click on it, you can edit it. So $33. 37. And we could say this is going to be where we're putting our stop.
Now, does a stop guarantee we're going to get out at the price we're requesting? No, it would trigger a market order. So if this were to gap down, we could end up out lower. Now, some might say, well, now you're risking just shy of $3 a share. If I subtract the current price, which is $36. 11 from that stop, we're risking $2. 73 a share. You might say, I don't want to risk that much. Well, the tighter you put your stop, the higher the probability that you could end up stopped out. Now, how can you look at those probabilities? How can you find out what the probability is? Well, for that, we could come to the option chain and say, let's look out at February.
If we have our stop, and this only has 250 wide strikes. So our stop, we're talking about putting that at 33 and change. If we put the stop at 35, we have an 83% chance. We have a chance of it coming down and kissing that, which would trigger our stop. Where if it's closer to 32. 50, then the probability of it kissing that or touching it and triggering our stop drops to 48%. Okay. Now, we're looking at the chart. So we're saying that probability-wise, we're saying that there's a higher probability if it comes down to this kind of $35 level, that that will act as, as a springboard for it. That will act as a support level. But you know, anything can happen. Now, we could put a target on this.
And if we wanted to put a target on this, you know, we might just measure the distance from here to here. Or, and then, you know, extrapolate that. So if we say, here was our, we went from a high up about here, down to here. That's about the width of this. And if I duplicate this, you could say, well, my expectation is that it will go up to about here, which is where some analysts have pegged the price. And that would be around maybe $40. 50. And so we could put in a target of $40. 50. Or we could just buy the stock and add it to our portfolio. Now, for this class, we're going to use this portfolio, which has about $500,000 in it.
And our, you know, we want to have a position sizing rule. And so if we look at that, we might say, okay, we don't want to risk more than, have a position size of more than one percent. So if we started say with $500,000, and we multiply that by 0. 05, that would mean we'd have a maximum position size of $25,000. We might say, well, it seems to be consolidating here. Maybe I'll do like half a position. So $12,500. And so, if you had $12,500, and you divide that by $36 and 14 cents, the share, we could buy 345 shares. And if we want to preserve the right to be able to sell a covered call or something like that, then we might say, well, let's just do 300 shares and we'll put our stop at 3337.
Now, another guideline that we'll want to have is how much are we willing to risk on any one trade? And if we had a half-million-dollar account and we said, we don't want to risk more than half of 1%, that means we don't want to risk more than $2,500. So if we had 300 shares and we're risking, I think it was 275, but let's call it $3 a share. That's still under a thousand dollars. So even if it gaps down and we ended up out a little lower than we were anticipating, we would still not have breached our positions. So we're going to look at our position sizing guideline or our max risk per trade. So we're going to come in here to trade, and we're going to look at buying custom with an OCO bracket.
And with this one, let's put in a target of $40 and 50 cents. So we're going to buy it at the current price and we're going to put in a target of $40 and 50 cents. We're going to link our quantities together because we're going to buy 300 shares. And we're going to make both of these good till canceled. And then, stop. So 3317. I didn't write it down. Dang it. Okay. Let's come back out here. Oh, 3337. I'm glad I put it on the chart. 3337. Okay. Confirm and send. So our position size is $10,854. We're going to make a note here that this is from our getting started with technical analysis and that this is a breakout. And we're going to put all our trades here.
This is based on a diagonal. Resistance. Breakout. With our target based on the width of that diagonal. Breakout. And so we're going to put this into our stock positions with a target. Okay. So those are two stocks that we're moving bullishly. What about a stock that's moving bearishly? Well, how about we look at Adobe? Is that moving bearishly? Now, when I first looked at this this morning, you know, we can see that this has been downtrending. You know, it's down 8% so far this year. We can see that we have a bit of a what we call a bear flag happening. Oops. Let me get rid of my screen. So it broke out. And then it tried to rally. And then it broke down again. So here's the pullback.
And then that's the flag part of it. And then here's our pullback and the flag part of it. And what we're looking for is a close below the low of the high day. So if you come back tomorrow to trading price patterns, we might look at this one again. Okay. So, there's a bearish trend. How about something going sideways? Well, we got up, you know, and there's there's lots of things moving in in all directions. But how about Decker? So Decker, again, we have earnings coming up, but this has been uptrending. So one would, you know, might argue that this has been a bullish uptrend. You know, again, if we show prices a percentage, it's up 80%. In the last year. And it's been kind of going sideways.
So could we take advantage of this intermediate to longer term uptrend and this consolidation to do something like a short put vertical? And that is a bullish to neutral strategy. Or as I like to say, it's kind of sort of bullish. But as long as if you sell strikes below this support level, as long as it stays above, it can continue to go sideways and we'd have, you know, a bullish trade. And this is a way we can use technical analysis coupled with the trading skills that, you know, we have in our kit bag to perhaps take advantage of something moving sideways. Or how about Garmin? Is that kind of similar? It's been uptrending. And then we have this support level that it's come and hit not just once.
It's hit it once, twice, three times, four times. So we've got, you know, lots of opportunities. Now, could we do that short put vertical idea? Yeah. Could we do a swing trade just back up to the previous high? We could. There's lots of different ways that we could use technical advantage, technical analysis and couple that with our skills. So, somebody is asking about when would you trade an iron condor? You might do that when something's going sideways and when it keeps hitting a ceiling and pulling back and then hitting a similar floor and pulling back. And we don't quite see this in Garmin at the moment, but it's a possibility. So, guys, I want to thank you. Thank you for joining me today. Here's what I'd like to ask as we wrap up.
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