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Understanding the Federal Reserve’s Dot Plot

Market Commentary
Government Policy
Markets
December 19, 2018
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Understanding the Federal Reserve's "Dot Plot"

Projections for the federal funds rate—a key short-term interest rate that can affect savings yields and consumer loan rates.

Each dot represents the view of a Fed policy maker for the rate’s target range at the end of each year shown.

[Top dot in 2019 circled] This official projects a range of 3.0-3.25% at the end of 2019.

[Row of dots representing 2.875% circled] Markets generally focus on the median “dot” or projection.

The median forecast is currently 2.875% by the end of 2019—implying two 0.25% rate increases in 2019.

 

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