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March 18, 2021

Understanding the Federal Reserve’s Dot Plot

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Understanding the Federal Reserve's Quarterly "Dot Plot"

The “dot plot” shows projections for the federal funds rate … a key short-term interest rate that can affect savings yields and consumer loan rates.

Each dot represents the view of a Fed policy maker for the rate’s target range at the end of each year shown.

Markets generally focus on the median “dot” or projection.

[Row of dots representing 0%-0.25% circled] The median projection is for the Fed funds rate to remain at the current range of 0% - 0.25% through 2023.

[Dots representing 0.375% and 0.625% in 2022 circled] However, four of the 18 members now project that the Fed will begin raising rates in 2022.

[Dots representing 0.375%, 0.635% and 0.875% in 2023 circled] Seven members project that the Fed will increase rates in 2023.

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