Washington: What to Watch Now

With early voting underway in 39 states and the District of Columbia, and voters set to go to the polls on November 3, campaigns across the country are running their final advertisements and making their closing arguments on the campaign trail. Here are four quick takeaways as we head into the final week of campaign season:

• Democrats remain poised to capture a solid majority in the House of Representatives. The generic Congressional ballot—a standard polling question that asks voters if they would prefer a Democrat or Republican to represent them in Congress—currently favors Democrats by 8.1 percentage points, according to Decision Desk HQ, an election data and analytics firm. Combined with individual race polling results, President Donald Trump's low approval rating, high gas prices, and other factors, a double-digit margin for the Democrats in the House seems increasingly likely. That result wouldn't be unusual—historically, midterms are terrible for the president's party, which has gained seats in the House just three times in midterm elections dating back to 1906.
• The Senate remains a toss-up, but Democrats have a real shot at the majority. Democrats need to net four seats to win the majority. Nine Senate races (two currently held by Democrats, seven by Republicans) are currently polling within the margin of error—a sign that these races could absolutely go either way. But Republicans are playing defense in more states than Democrats. It's going to be close—and we may not know the outcome on November 4.
• Department of Justice pre-emptively sues over Senate race in Alaska. On October 22, the Department of Justice (DOJ) sued Alaska over its closely watched race that could help determine control of the Senate. The DOJ is arguing that voters could confuse Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, the incumbent who is running for re-election, with another candidate named Daniel J. Sullivan, who is also on the ballot. If the incumbent Sullivan loses, the DOJ wants Alaska to delay certification and determine whether votes from confused Alaskans may have changed the outcome. A judge will now decide whether to order Alaska to delay certification under those circumstances. The move likely previews what could be drawn-out litigation over the election outcome in multiple states, particularly if the battle for the Senate majority is close.
• Iowa may be the bellwether state for this election. Iowa has a competitive governor's race, a competitive Senate race, and three competitive House races. All five are currently held by Republicans, but polling indicates that Democrats could take several of these races. Iowa farmers have been particularly hard hit by tariffs, high diesel prices, and the president's decision to allow foreign beef imports. Democrat success—or failure—in these key races may indicate whether it's a big night for Democrats across the country.