Looking to the Futures

U.S. markets reversed sharply higher on Thursday as investors temporarily brushed aside concerns over potential rate hikes. Following Wednesday's volatile reaction to the Federal Reserve's decision to leave rates unchanged and the subsequent spike in Treasury yields, equities regained momentum. The Nasdaq closed 2.8% higher, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.2%, and the S&P 500 gained 1.7%.

Despite the market's renewed risk appetite, Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 30-year Treasury yield holding near its highest level since 2007. The bond market appears to be questioning the Fed's policy stance, even as stocks rally. Elsewhere, crude oil (/CL) fell nearly 1%, while precious metals moved higher amid broader weakness in the U.S. dollar. December Gold futures (/GCZ26) settled at 4,160.60, gaining approximately 1.55% on the session.

With interest rates, inflation, the Iran war, and oil prices dominating headlines in recent months, gold and silver have taken a back seat after capturing much of investors' attention in 2025. However, Thursday's wave of economic data and a sharply weaker dollar brought the precious metals sector back into focus.

Economic data provided support for gold prices throughout the session. The June U.S. Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, came in largely as expected and showed some moderation from prior readings. The annual Core PCE rate eased to 3.3%, while quarterly Core PCE rose 3.4%, better than expectations of 3.5% and down from 4.4% in the first quarter.

Meanwhile, U.S. second-quarter GDP growth rose 1.5% quarter over quarter, missing expectations of 2.0%. While the headline figure disappointed, underlying components painted a more constructive picture, with consumer spending, business investment, and nominal GDP growth continuing to demonstrate resilience within the broader economy.

Another key catalyst for gold's rally was weakness in the U.S. dollar following the Fed's decision and strength among major foreign currencies. The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY), which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies including the euro and Japanese yen, fell as much as 0.94% and touched six-week lows.

The euro strengthened after Eurozone second-quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations, pushing EUR/USD to six-week highs. Meanwhile, USD/JPY fell roughly 2.5% as the Japanese yen rallied to a two-and-a-half-month high. Speculation that Japanese authorities intervened to support the currency ahead of Friday's Bank of Japan meeting, where rates are expected to remain unchanged, added further momentum to the move.

Strong central bank demand also helped support the bullish narrative for gold. New data showed that gold holdings in China's People's Bank of China reserves increased by 480,000 ounces during June, bringing total holdings to 75.44 million troy ounces. The increase marked the twentieth consecutive month of reserve accumulation by the PBOC, underscoring continued demand from central banks despite historically elevated prices.
 

On the daily chart, December Gold futures (/GCZ26) attempted to break out of the trading range that has contained prices for much of the past month. Since late June, gold has largely consolidated between approximately 3,950 and 4,200. Thursday's close at 4,160.60 brought prices back near the upper end of that range.

Gold continues to find support at the 9-day and 20-day simple moving averages, remaining above both levels during its recent advance. However, price remains below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs, suggesting longer-term resistance levels are still intact.

The 14-day RSI finished at 52.76, signaling mildly bullish but generally neutral momentum. Volume declined from the previous two sessions, with 143,851 contracts traded, though activity remained modestly above the 50-day average of 137,904.

According to the Daily Hightower Report, /GC may find support at 4,124.8 and 4,057.3, with resistance at 4,220.0 and 4,247.7.
 

Major economic reports, trading events, and news items that could potentially impact specific futures markets:

8:30 AM ET:      Employment Cost Index

9:45 AM ET:      Chicago Business Barometer (PMI)

10:00 AM ET:    Consumer Sentiment (final)

New futures products are available to trade with a futures-approved account on all thinkorswim platforms: 

• Ripple (/XRP)
• Micro Ripple (/MXP)
• 100 OZ Silver (/SIC)
• 1 OZ Gold (/1OZ)
• Solana (/SOL)
• Micro Solana (/MSL)

Visit the Schwab.com Futures Markets page to explore the wide variety of futures contracts available for trading through Charles Schwab Futures and Forex LLC.