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In this episode, Kathy Jones and Liz Ann Sonders look back on the week's CPI data and look ahead to what indicators they are both watching next week.
For her focus on equities and the economy, Liz Ann Sonders interviews Nancy Lazar, chief global economist at Piper Sandler, where she leads the economics research team. Before joining Piper Sandler, she co-founded Cornerstone Macro, Wall Street's premier macro boutique. Prior to Cornerstone, she was co-founder and vice chairman of ISI Group for more than 20 years. They discuss the likelihood of a recession in the coming months, the state of inflation and Fed tightening, corporate revenues, and much more.
For her focus on the bond market, Kathy Jones interviews Collin Martin, a director and fixed income strategist on her team at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. Their discussion focuses on the quality and yields of investment-grade bonds.
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The Sahm Rule, developed by Claudia Sahm, identifies signals related to the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release?rid=456
SLOOS is the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices. For more information, see https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos.htm.
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