Triple-Digit Oil Spooks Market but PPI in Line
Published as of: September 10, 2026, 9:22 a.m. ET
(Thursday market open) August wholesale prices rose roughly as expected, the U.S. government said today, up 0.4% for the headline Producer Price Index (PPI) and 0.2% for core, excluding food and energy. That was in line with consensus for headline and just under the 0.3% average core estimate. Major indexes fell after the data as U.S. crude oil topped $100 a barrel and the 10-year Treasury note yield struck 4.90% with no end in sight to the war.
"Overall PPI of 0.4% was in line with expectations but still likely too hot for the Fed's liking," said Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR) "CPI will be the more important report but I don't think this squashes the idea of a hike in the near future." Several PPI metrics like airfare, transportation, and warehousing were firmer, and these filter into Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices, the Federal Reserve's favored inflation metric. This doesn't bode well for PCE, and odds of a rate hike jumped to 65% from 60%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Major indexes sagged a third-straight session Wednesday, hurt by rising crude and yields in an absence of data and earnings. Small caps suffered most, but tech also wilted. This morning, the European Central Bank hiked rates 25 basis points, as analysts had expected to fight surging inflation. Tomorrow brings the August U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), the last rung of the data ladder before next Wednesday's Fed rate decision.
Three things to watch
- CPI next: Consensus approaching tomorrow's 8:30 a.m. ET CPI is 0.4% for the headline monthly reading and 0.2% for core, according to Briefing.com. Those compare with 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively, in July. The wild card may be the core annual CPI reading, seen now at 2.4%. That would be the lowest in several years. However, CPI is heavily weighted toward shelter costs, something less weighted in PCE, so a low CPI may be somewhat discounted if shelter costs played a big part. Like today's PPI, CPI feeds into the PCE report later this month. And the core annual PPI reading today of 4.6% also could be a factor in the Fed's decision. Any major jump in monthly numbers after July's relatively benign reading might be viewed unfavorably by the Fed and markets. "Surprises matter, as a hot reading could pull more Fed officials into the 'hike' camp, while a cool reading should give many committee members comfort in holding," Howard said. Consider watching the CME FedWatch Tool after CPI.
- Storms could exacerbate oil's rise: Hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico has been quiet so far, but investors might want to get used to watching weather reports in coming weeks. U.S. WTI Crude prices are close to $100 per barrel due to wars crimping international production and exports, so a hurricane aimed at Gulf oil rigs would conceivably affect prices more than in a normal year. The market impact would depend on the strength of the hurricane and its path. Hurricanes affect more than oil. They can wreak havoc on retailers, airlines, the hotel and restaurant industry, and other businesses with production facilities nearby. A major hurricane can even alter U.S. monthly jobs growth, frequently depressing nonfarm payrolls data a month or two before what's often a subsequent rebound as the government finally sort outs the chaos. Construction and materials firms often get a lift from rebuilding. Municipal bonds are another asset that can feel the impact of a hurricane. Of course, no storm is the same and none needs to necessarily follow that formula.
- Last gasp of earnings ahead: This afternoon's results from Oracle (ORCL) and Adobe (ADBE) provide a break from the focus on crude oil, central banks, and yields. Oracle shares have been volatile amid concerns about return on investment for its AI spending. Last time it reported, shares fell double digits despite strong results as Oracle announced another debt offering. Since then, shares have slowly risen despite pressure on free cash flow. One possible sign of AI beginning to pay off is growth in cloud computing. A 93% annual rise in the prior quarter represents a high bar to repeat. Consensus is for earnings per share of $1.74 on revenue of $19.1 billion. Costs will likely be closely watched. Adobe shares fell sharply recently after the firm announced a CEO change, but were up from June lows, helped by general exuberance in software. Strong results from Salesforce (CRM) and Snowflake (SNOW) added to optimism, and Adobe's results last time topped estimates. Today's call could shed light on its leadership decision, an internal hire. Next week is almost barren of earnings, likely giving geopolitical and central bank policy more influence on stocks.
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On the move
- The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average plunged to 36%, down from 47% last Friday as market breadth narrowed dramatically. Energy and health care are the only sectors up over the last month, and consumer discretionary and industrials—both exposed to concerns about higher borrowing costs—are down sharply from a month ago.
- Apple (AAPL) climbed about 1% early after introducing a folding iPhone that will be more expensive than the current product. Some analysts said the price hike wasn't as high as they expected, raising margin concerns. JPMorgan Chase said Apple's fall product launch was largely in line with expectations.
- Meta Platforms (META) popped another 1% this morning after yesterday's 6% surge. The latest move came as JPMorgan upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral, noting Meta's announcement yesterday of its Muse AI agent among other factors.
- Chip and AI-related stocks mostly fell this morning, possibly a sign of investor caution. However, in a barometer of chip demand, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) posted a 53% annual rise in August revenue to a record high and the company said it's struggling to keep up with demand, Bloomberg reported.
- American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) fell 14% on disappointing quarterly results and a margin outlook that missed consensus expectations.
- Freeport McMoRan (FCX) plunged 8% early as copper prices toppled more than 4%. Copper recently hit record highs on concerns over supply woes, but fell after China's August imports of the metal hit six-year lows for the month and the Trump administration said today it would delay tariffs.
- Chewy (CHWY) dropped 11% Wednesday despite beating analysts' earnings and revenue estimates. Investors seemed unimpressed with how the quarter shook out, nevertheless.
- Lyft (LYFT) fell 8% Wednesday as it reaffirmed guidance.
- HP (HPQ) rose about 5% Wednesday after announcing an AI-related collaboration with Red Hat and Nvidia (NVDA).
- SpaceX (SPCX) fell almost 4% Wednesday after GE Aerospace (GE) paid $11.75 billion for turbine blade caster Consolidated Precision Products, Barron's reported. This raised competition fears in the turbine market after SpaceX CEO Elon Musk recently mused about SpaceX entering the blade-casting business.
- Technically, 7,600 or 7,620 are likely lines in the sand for the S&P 500 Index. A drop below that could lead to more feeble buying demand.
More insights from Schwab
Gen X trading exuberance slows: The August Schwab Trading Activity Index™ (STAX), which tracks client trading activity to gauge sentiment, showed investors in the Gen X contingent born between 1965 and 1980 retreating a bit from their long-term bullish stance as clients overall trended more cautiously last month.
Impact of rate hikes on market: Though every rate cycle is different in its own way, history suggests that the pace of Fed rate hikes—slow or fast—can have a different effect on market returns and economic growth, Schwab experts note in their latest analysis.
VIX for bond market: Learn about the MOVE Index, how it tracks bond volatility, and why it's an important tool for fixed income and equity investors.
Markets around elections: In the run-up to elections, markets are usually flat. The latest episode of the WashingtonWise podcast looked at whether history still offers a useful guide to a market that has repeatedly defied it in 2026.
Refresher on deductibles: One of the most important factors in insurance is the deductible, or the amount you pay out of pocket before insurance begins paying. Schwab's latest explainer article detailed how they work.
Chart of the day
Data source: CME Group. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
After a sharp rally last month, bitcoin futures (/BTC—candlesticks) are consolidating in a narrowing range (white trendlines) around $80,000, the average investor cost basis. It is also right at the volume-weighted average price since the all-time high reached in early October.
The week ahead
Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.
September 11: August CPI and core CPI and expected earnings from Kroger (KR).
September 14: No major earnings or data expected.
September 15: No major earnings or data expected.
September 16: Fed rate decision and expected earnings from Lennar (LEN).
September 17: August housing starts and building permits.
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