Chip Revival: CoreWeave Sparks Fresh Tech Rally
Published as of: November 11, 2026, 9:22 a.m. ET
(Wednesday market open) Stocks stormed back early, carried by CoreWeave's (CRWV) impressive earnings and Nvidia's (NVDA) rebound from a dramatic drop early this week. Chip and AI-related names formed the initial vanguard while staples and other defensive sectors quickly moved to the back of the line.
Bond trading is closed for Veteran's Day, maybe a welcome development for stocks after yesterday's double-digit Treasury yield gains on hot Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. A 10-year Treasury note auction late Tuesday saw underwhelming demand, and a 30-year auction runs tomorrow. Crude oil also threatened Wall Street's party, rising 1.5% this morning from recent two-month lows on fresh Persian Gulf shipping attacks. Data and earnings today are light due to the holiday.
Major indexes fell Tuesday as yields soared. Still, recent broadening stayed on track, with 69% of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving averages, up from 20% in early October. A rising tide lifting more boats can be healthy, but recent tech troubles make it hard for index investors to appreciate that. Tech forms about 40% of the S&P 500 by market capitalization.
Three things to watch
Rate hike odds climb: Rising inflation, accompanied by last week's meteoric October jobs report, sent signals of an overheating economy. The Fed paused in October after raising rates in September. Now the question isn't whether December means another hike, but by how much. Fed Gov. Christopher Waller said Tuesday he could see the argument for a 50-basis-point rate hike in December. The typical move is 25. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan jumped into Waller's camp, suggesting two more hikes are needed, perhaps more "rapidly." Futures trading now factors in odds of a 50-basis point December hike at 15%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. A range of 4.5% to 4.75% by next June is the most likely scenario in futures trading, implying 75 basis points of tightening between now and mid-year. Higher rates can hurt growth stocks by slowing the economy and raising borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. However, the Fed might feel it can focus on inflation and not worry about other metrics, judging from the economy's current strength.
Energy supplies raise concerns: Though crude is off its highs on hopes for geopolitical progress, even an Iran negotiations breakthrough might not reduce prices much, given supplies. Global oil inventories fell 509 million barrels between February and September, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. As of August, government-held oil stocks among members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development were the lowest since 1989, the Wall Street Journal reported. The world has around 7.8 billion barrels in oil inventories, but mostly for day-to-day operations. One wild card is China, which hasn't imported major quantities since the Iran war began. Its supplies are hard to pin down, but it used to be a major buyer of Iranian crude and may need to tap other sources. President Trump meets China's President Xi next week and trade is likely on the docket, meaning energy might come up. Back home, CPI data indicated high energy costs are leaking into other parts of the economy. Friday's October Producer Price Index (PPI) should provide insight into the impact of high energy prices on wholesalers.
- Could lower P/E be fleeting for wrong reasons? Though Wall Street's retreat put the S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio near three-year lows, investors shouldn't conclude the market is cheap. Earnings are a moving target, and if guidance falls on ideas of a slower AI buildout hurting economic growth, P/E might rise as projected "E" falls. Earnings per share in the third quarter are seen up 31% annually, with fourth quarter gains pegged at 28.4%, according to FactSet. Earnings growth in 2027 could slow to 16.1% from 33.3% in 2026. One thing that could hurt estimates in coming weeks is any announcement of changes in capital expenditure plans, especially from hyperscalers adding AI capacity. That spending helped drive parabolic earnings gains over the last year, but the percentage by which companies are beating expectations has narrowed, a troubling sign. Also, the sharp jump in yields yesterday on rate hike fears wasn't necessarily good news for profit margins. An accompanying dollar spike that spilled into Wednesday's early trading raised worries about overseas demand for U.S. products, another potential margin hit. The dollar got an additional lift from hawkish Fed talk.
On the move
CoreWeave spiked 14% ahead of the open, lifted by quarterly revenue and revenue guidance topping expectations. The "neocloud" firm—which also raised its operating income forecast and reported a narrower-than-expected loss—is at the center of analysts' concerns about AI borrowing. CoreWeave's "strong operational" Q3 brings reassurance around its debt and data center issues, Citi said in an analyst note raising its price target. Neoclouds provide computing power to AI developers.
Nebius (NBIS), another neocloud company, was right on CoreWeave's tail early, up 11% on relief over its rival's results. Nebius reports before the open tomorrow. Another AI-related earnings report to watch tomorrow is Applied Materials (AMAT) after the close. It was up 5% this morning.
Nvidia jumped 3% before the open despite lack of developments in its CEO controversy. It seemed to benefit from overall improved tech sentiment. Its report next Tuesday shapes up as the unchallenged highlight of the coming week. Baird downgraded Nvidia to neutral from outperform, citing supply issues and potential demand softening as AI hyperscaler spending growth possibly scales back.
Other chip and AI-related stocks rising this morning included Applied Digital (APLD) gaining 10%, Lumentum (LITE) rising 9%, Seagate (STX) gaining 8%, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) advancing almost 9%. Nvidia rivals Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Broadcom (AVGO), both of which gained early this week on Nvidia's struggles, rose 5% and almost 4%, respectively.
In another potential sign of chip health, South Korea's exports the first 10 days of November more than doubled from a year earlier, with semiconductor exports up four-fold, BusinessKorea reported.
In data today, the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index bounced 6.2% from a week earlier.
A CPI breakdown showed the weighted share of CPI components whose price climbed by 3% or more on an annualized basis hit 54.5%. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called CPI "another distressing report, borderline disturbing," in an interview with PBS.
GE Vernova (GEV) and Bloom Energy (BE) both fell more than 4% Tuesday, declines attributed to news that Softbank revised its equipment procurement strategy, Briefing.com said.
Consumer companies generally performed well Tuesday despite higher yields, possibly helped by ideas that rising inflation means better pricing power so long as economic indicators like jobs are strong.
- Home builders were one exception to the consumer story, with D.R. Horton (DHI) falling nearly 4% Tuesday and Lennar (LEN) down more than 5% on mortgage rate concerns.
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Chart of the day
Data source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, Nasdaq. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW—candlesticks)—which weighs all components the same—is up 3.6% over the last month, compared with a 3.6% drop over that stretch for the cap-weighted S&P 500 Index (SPX—purple line) and a 9.5% fall for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NDX). With tech composing about 40% of the SPX and Nvidia alone holding a 7% weighting, it's no wonder that the equal-weighted index has performed better, especially considering recent strength in lower-capitalized sectors like financials, energy, and health care.
The week ahead
Wednesday, November 11: No major earnings or data expected. U.S. bond market closed for Veterans Day.
Thursday, November 12: October existing home sales and expected morning earnings from Brookfield (BN) and Nebius (NBIS). Expected afternoon earnings from Cisco (CSCO) and Applied Materials (AMAT).
Friday, November 13: October PPI and core PPI.
Monday, November 16: Expected morning earnings from Baidu (BIDU) and Tyson Foods (TSN).
Tuesday, November 17: October industrial production and capacity utilization and expected morning earnings from Home Depot (HD) and Walt Disney (DIS), and afternoon earnings from Nvidia (NVDA).
Wednesday, November 18: October housing starts and building permits, FOMC minutes, and expected morning earnings from TJX (TJX), PDD Holdings (PDD), Lowe's (LOW), Target (TGT), Williams-Sonoma (WSM). Expected afternoon earnings from Palo Alto Networks (PANW).
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