Stocks Rebound Early as AI Jitters Ease
Published as of: October 9, 2026, 9:10 a.m. ET
(Friday market open) Tech names led stocks higher in early trading Friday as jitters over OpenAI's revenue faded and oil prices stabilized.
While the earnings and economic calendar remains relatively light today, investors will be watching the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment report. Remarks from Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmidt at the 2026 Kansas City Economic Outlook may draw attention later in the day.
On Thursday, the Nasdaq fell 1.3%, its worst day since mid-August, after OpenAI's revenue came under scrutiny, hitting AI stocks. The S&P 500 Index fell 0.6% but six of its 11 sectors closed higher, with energy gaining nearly 3% as oil prices surged.
Three things to watch
- Investors seek reassurance as focus shifts to AI debt: Smashing expectations and posting record profits don't impress the way they once did, at least in the AI space. Just ask Samsung Electronics and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM). Samsung reported nearly a ninefold increase in profits for the third quarter. Its stock slumped, and is now about 25% off its June high. Taiwan Semiconductor, which reports full earnings next week, said sales grew 51% during the quarter. Its stock also fell. Expectations are high, and macro sentiment is weighing on equities, but investors' reactions to the numbers from both companies underscore that strong results are no longer enough. Investors also want to see credible guidance and disciplined spending, as they increasingly focus on the billions of dollars of debt needed to finance the AI buildout.
- Tariffs complicate inflation fight: In a study released this week, Federal Reserve economists said they found that for every percentage point increase in tariffs, consumer goods prices rise by about a quarter percentage point after one year. About two thirds of the impact simply resulted from higher prices of consumer goods. The other third resulted from U.S. producers raising their prices because of the higher import prices they paid, and because producers raise prices when directly competing imports cost more. This process usually takes about six months to a year, the report said. The economists concluded that in February 2026, tariffs had contributed 2.9 percentage points to consumer goods inflation. That same month, consumer goods prices rose 2.0%, meaning they theoretically would have fallen by 0.9% if the tariffs hadn't been implemented.
- Earnings are key to rally as yields rise: Stocks have mostly absorbed the blows from rising oil prices and Treasury yields hitting multi-decade highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq even notching record highs this week. But given the more challenging cost-of-capital backdrop, investors will be looking for companies to continue justifying those record levels with strong profits and forward guidance during the earnings season that's now unfolding. The broader view is quite bullish. FactSet expects S&P 500 third-quarter earnings to grow 29.5%—which would mark a third-straight quarter above 25%. The number of companies (72) issuing positive earnings guidance for the quarter hit the highest level since FactSet began tracking the metric in 2006, while the number issuing negative guidance is below average. The energy sector is expected to report the highest earnings growth (114%), followed by Information Technology (65%), with the semiconductor and semiconductor equipment industry leading the way with earnings growth of 130%.
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On the move
- AI stocks were modestly higher before the opening bell after Bloomberg reported that OpenAI is expected to hit $70 billion in annualized revenue by the end of the year. On Thursday, AI stocks tumbled following contrary reports that OpenAI's annualized revenue had hit about $50 billion at the end of September, versus a previously reported $68 billion. Among the biggest losers Thursday, CoreWeave (CRWV) fell nearly 8%, ARM (ARM) lost more than 6%, Intel (INTC) fell more than 5%, and Sandisk (SNDK) lost about 5%.
- SpaceX (SPCX) gained more than 4% before the bell after it reached a deal to buy cellular spectrum licenses, a move expected to pave the way for Starlink Mobile to become a major mobile carrier in the United States. T-Mobile (TMUS), AT&T (T), and Verizon (VZ) all lost at least 6%. Mobile infrastructure companies American Tower (AMT) and Crown Castle (CCI) both jumped more than 7%.
- Apple (AAPL) fell more than 2% in early trading Friday following reports that it had told some of its suppliers to cut production of some parts due to soft demand for its new iPhone line.
- Humana (HUM) jumped about 16% after the government upgraded its rating of the company's Medicare Advantage plans.
- Delta Airlines (DAL) fell more than 1% before the bell after reporting weaker-than-expected third-quarter earnings and cutting its full-year outlook, citing higher fuel costs.
- Lumentum (LITE) gained more than 6% in premarket trading after the CEO said the company had sold out of its optical components through 2029.
- Freeport McMoRan (FCX) rose more than 3% in early trading as gold prices rose, putting gold on pace for its first weekly gain in three weeks.
- PepsiCo (PEP) gained nearly 4% Thursday after reporting third-quarter earnings and revenue that topped forecasts but cutting its full-year outlook.
- Chipotle (CMG) rose more than 6% Thursday after reports that Starbucks (SBUX) was considering a takeover of the Mexican-food chain. Starbucks lost less than 1%.
- Treasury yields were slightly higher early Friday. They fell for a second day Thursday after an auction of 30-year notes met expectations, and President Trump said he had no plans to resume attacks on Iran before the midterm elections, bringing oil prices off their highs for the day.
- WTI crude oil fell about 1% in early trading Friday. It rose more than 3% Thursday amid escalating attacks in the Middle East and concerns about the U.S. hurricane season.
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Chart of the day
Data source: Cboe. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
A daily chart of the 10-year Treasury yield (/TNX:CGI–candlesticks) shows signs of fading momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI, middle pane) has reversed from the overbought level, while the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD–blue line) and histogram (bottom pane) show weakening momentum.
The week ahead
October 12: No major earnings or data expected; U.S. bond market closed for Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples' Day.
October 13: Expected earnings from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Domino's Pizza (DPZ), and existing home sales for September.
October 14: September Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core CPI, Fed Beige Book, and expected earnings from ASML (ASML), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), BlackRock (BLK), Progressive (PGR), Fastenal (FAST), and State Street Corporation (STT).
October 15: Expected earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), PNC Financial Services (PNC), U.S. Bancorp (USB), and Producer Price Index for September and initial jobless claims.
October 16: Expected earnings from Travelers (TRV) and Truist (TFC), and industrial production for September.
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