Bitcoin Flows Mostly Balanced as Market Drifts
Bitcoin has looked like a forgotten market in recent weeks, rolling along the bottom of its bear-market range as stocks and oil have provided the action.
Spot bitcoin trading volumes have hit the lowest level since late 2023, while flows into and from spot exchange-traded products (ETPs) have nearly reached equilibrium, with neither buyers nor sellers having the upper hand lately.
That's not necessarily a bad thing. ETPs saw heavy selling in the second half of May and throughout June, including about $4.6 billion in net outflows in June alone, according to Glassnode data. That drove a steep price drop. Bitcoin has moved mostly sideways since.
Source: Glassnode
For illustrative purposes only.
Flows into bitcoin futures have also leveled off, nearing a standstill. Futures open interest has risen in recent weeks, with the 30-day net change flipping positive July 4. Open interest volume is still relatively low, and the data doesn't show whether traders are going long or short. But sharp increases in open interest have historically coincided with price increases, while declines have usually accompanied price drops.
Source: Glassnode
For illustrative purposes only.
Net flows in bitcoin options open interest flipped positive July 21, after more than six weeks in negative territory. On July 24, the open interest put/call ratio hit the lowest level since January, at 0.51, a level where those seeking downside protection (puts) and upside gain (calls) are largely in balance. The ratio has rebounded slightly since then—to 0.61 as of August 1—as more traders sought downside protection during a mild price decline.
Source: Glassnode
For illustrative purposes only.
Other metrics also point to a quiet market whose flows are in balance during a prolonged period of consolidation. Measured in coins rather than dollar values, the volume of bitcoin traded on the spot market has dropped to the lowest level since 2019. Deposits and withdrawals at crypto-native exchanges, meanwhile, are roughly balanced, with volumes also at long-term lows, according to Glassnode.
Meanwhile, the 30-day net flow into bitcoin treasury companies has flatlined since June 20. Net inflows for July totaled 5,237 bitcoin, the lowest since February, when prices were nosediving.
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