Download the Schwab app from iTunes®Get the AppClose

  • Find a branch
To expand the menu panel use the down arrow key. Use Tab to navigate through submenu items.

What Issues Facing Congress Should Investors Watch?

Click to show the transcript

RANDY FREDERICK: Tax reform is complete and healthcare reform is off the table, but that doesn’t mean the Trump Administration has run out of things to do. Mike Townsend joins me for the January 30th Schwab Market Snapshot, to talk about some of the more urgent issues facing Congress right now.

So, Mike, after a very brief shutdown earlier this month, Congress created a short-term deal that only sets us up for another shutdown potentially at the end of next week. Will Congress finally be able to come together and craft a longer-term deal? Or will this cycle of just keeping the government open for a few weeks at a time continue?

MIKE TOWNSEND: Well, Randy, you’re right. The agreement reached after the weekend shutdown in January runs only through February 8th. But I think chances are slim for a long-term deal, so we’re going to be looking for another short-term extension of perhaps four weeks. Republicans have been pushing for a two-year budget deal that would set the spending caps not only for the rest of this fiscal year, but also for next year. And that would end the cycle of another deadline every few weeks. But no deal has been struck with the Democrats yet.

Also complicating matters is the ongoing dispute over immigration issues. The Senate Majority Leader agreed to hold a separate vote on immigration legislation soon. But some Democrats think tying the issue to the potential government shutdown gives them more leverage.

Despite all this uncertainty, shutdown odds this time I think are pretty low. I don’t think either side wants a repeat of the January shutdown, which was widely panned by voters from both parties as silly and unnecessary. So look for a short-term extension of another four weeks, perhaps to mid-March or so.

RANDY: Now, during his State of the Union Address, which is tonight, President Trump is expected to introduce a major infrastructure plan. Now, if I’m not mistaken, this is actually one of those topics that had bipartisan support prior to the election. So what are the chances that that issue will move forward this year?

MIKE: Well, you’re right that infrastructure is an issue that should attract bipartisan support, and pretty much everybody agrees on both sides of the aisle that we need to spend more on roads, and bridges, and airports, and other projects. However, we’re not optimistic about the plan’s chances in 2018 for a couple of reasons.

First, there were a lot of bad feelings engendered by the end of 2017, when the Republicans used a parliamentary maneuver to be able to pass the new tax law with a simple majority in the Senate. That meant that Democrats were really cut out of those discussions and ended up very frustrated.

Second, and perhaps more important, is the fact that the midterm elections are now only about nine months away, and Democrats think that they have a real shot at taking the majorities in both the House and the Senate. And that means they don’t have much interest or incentive to give the Republican leadership a chance for a big win on a popular issue like infrastructure spending. So, as a result, we think a bipartisan deal is a real longshot in 2018.

RANDY: Now, finally, an issue that probably hasn’t gotten enough attention lately is the debt ceiling. Now, in the past, a showdown on this issue has caused some big market moves and some major volatility spikes. Now, since the deadline is fast approaching, can you give us an update on that topic?

MIKE: Well, this is probably the issue that has the most potential impact on the markets that comes out of Washington. And the last agreement on the debt ceiling expired on December 8th, and since then, the Treasury Department has been using what it calls extraordinary measures to ensure that the United States does not default on its debts.

Now, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Republican leaders in early January that Congress should act on the debt ceiling by February 28th, but that’s not a hard-and-fast deadline. Secretary Mnuchin will have to give Congress a formal drop-dead date of when the Treasury will run out of cash to pay its debts soon. We expect that date to fall sometime in March, and that means that there’s only a little more than a month for Congress to act.

Given that this issue is traditionally even more politically complex than the government shutdown issue, obviously, that doesn’t bode well for an agreement. And there’s really not a plan or a timetable for how Congress is going to address this issue. But as this deadline approaches, expect the markets to get more skittish. Back in 2011, we came the closest that we’ve ever come as a country to defaulting on our debts, and that uncertainty caused a double-digit pullback in the markets. So this is definitely an issue that investors want to keep an eye on in the weeks ahead.

RANDY: Yeah, I think most people probably remember that period. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen again. Mike, thanks for those great updates.

Listen, you can read more from Mike in the Insights & Ideas section on Schwab.com. And, don’t forget, you can follow me on Twitter @RandyAFrederick. We’ll be back again. Until next time, invest wisely. Own your tomorrow.

Important Disclosures

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.

Please note that this content was created as of the specific date indicated and reflects the author’s views as of that date. It will be kept solely for historical purposes, and the author’s opinions may change, without notice, in reaction to shifting economic, market, business, and other conditions.

Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

(0118-80T3)

Thumbs up / down votes are submitted voluntarily by readers and are not meant to suggest the future performance or suitability of any account type, product or service for any particular reader and may not be representative of the experience of other readers. When displayed, thumbs up / down vote counts represent whether people found the content helpful or not helpful and are not intended as a testimonial. Any written feedback or comments collected on this page will not be published. Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. may in its sole discretion re-set the vote count to zero, remove votes appearing to be generated by robots or scripts, or remove the modules used to collect feedback and votes.