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Materials Sector Rating: Marketperform

Materials sector overview

The commodity price declines seen over the past couple of years may be ending, with global monetary policies helping to arrest the fall. However, rapid gains in commodity prices seem unlikely at this point and a tightening Fed gives us caution.

Market outlook for the materials sector

We believe that the sharp commodity price decline seen over the past couple of years has ended, with global stimulative monetary policies helping to arrest the fall. We don't think investors should bail out of the materials sector following the recent fall in the price of iron as we’ve seen a modest rebound. Nor should they load up on hopes of a sustained rebound in commodity prices, as we don’t think that appears very likely with global economic growth still modest, at best.

A positive economic picture in the U.S., as well as an improving European economy, are potential tailwinds for the materials sector. Additionally, some indebted governments have scaled back their austerity plans and are focusing more closely on generating economic growth. This could provide a bit of fuel to the materials sector.

However, there is uncertainty surrounding both U.S. monetary policy and global economic growth. European economic growth has improved as mentioned above, but remains modest and they are still dealing with some structural problems. Chinese economic growth has slowed compared to the past several years, though it has stabilized recently. Also, a renewed strengthening of the U.S. dollar could hurt the sector, although that could be mitigated somewhat by hopes for better U.S. economic growth. For now, we're holding to our marketperform rating.

Factors that may affect the materials sector

Positive factors for the materials sector include:

  • Increased demand: Developing countries continue to need more raw materials to support their infrastructure building.
  • Accommodative monetary policy: Central banks in the developed world are now largely in easing mode, with the notable exception of the Federal Reserve, which should help to support economic activity and the materials sector.
  • Reduction in austerity programs: Some global fiscal restraint measures seem to be easing, which could help to stimulate growth.

Negative factors for the materials sector include:

  • Reduction in demand from China: Chinese demand for processed commodities might be slowing as technological advances and a build-out of production facilities allow the country to produce more of its own materials. China recently transitioned from being a net importer to a net exporter of steel.
  • Larger inventories in China: Reports of large supplies could dampen hopes for a sharp rebound, as it could take time to work through those stockpiles.
  • Increased labor costs: Wage costs are rising in the materials sector, as we've seen skilled-labor shortages in certain segments of the market.

Clients can see our top-rated stocks in the materials sector.

Want to learn more about a specific sector?  Click on a link below for more information or visit Schwab Sector Views to see how they compare.

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Information Technology Sector Rating: Outperform
Real Estate Sector: Underperform
Real estate sector

Important Disclosures

Schwab Sector Views do not represent a personalized recommendation of a particular investment strategy to you. You should not buy or sell an investment without first considering whether it is appropriate for you and your portfolio. Additionally, you should review and consider any recent market news.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific sectors. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market and other conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Companies within the materials sector may be significantly affected by commodity prices, currency fluctuations, global competition, government regulations, import controls, depletion of resources, liability for environmental damage and other factors.

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