Download the Schwab app from iTunes®Get the AppClose

  • Find a branch
To expand the menu panel use the down arrow key. Use Tab to navigate through submenu items.

How to Combat Volatility, Inflation and Rising Rates

Few market phenomena cause more angst than volatility, inflation and rising interest rates. Individually, they can be unnerving enough. But when they team up—as they have this year—they can be downright disruptive.

“On any given day, you have people telling you what the market or interest rates or consumer prices are going to do,” says Mark Riepe, head of the Schwab Center for Financial Research. “The trouble is, these predictions are often at odds with one another—and are tough to get right in any case.”

Rather, success in attaining your financial goals is often about ignoring all that noise, Mark says, “and that’s easier to do when your portfolio is well-positioned.”

Toward that end, here are some of the most common tools you can use to cope with these sometimes disconcerting market conditions.

Volatility

For active traders who capitalize on price moves, the return of higher volatility earlier this year came as welcome relief. But for many investors, market swings are synonymous with heartburn.

One of the best ways to put volatility in its place is to invest a set dollar amount at regular intervals (through automatic deductions from your paycheck, for instance). This strategy, known as dollar-cost averaging, may help you lower your average cost per share by capturing a broader spectrum of prices than you would if you purchased all your shares at once. (See “Slow and steady,” below.)

“We all know in theory that we’re supposed to buy low and sell high, but in practice we often do the exact opposite, because we let our emotions get the best of us,” says Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab’s chief investment strategist. “Dollar-cost averaging puts your purchasing on autopilot.”

Another potentially effective strategy for dealing with increased volatility is rebalancing your portfolio from time to time, so you don’t stray too far from your target asset allocation.

Retired savers whose portfolios favor fixed income, for example, might find themselves with an uncomfortably high exposure to equities after a sustained market run-up. While this can increase the value of your overall portfolio, it can also exacerbate your downside if the market suddenly swings the other way.

Regular rebalancing is even more critical during periods of increased volatility. That’s because prices by definition fluctuate to a much greater extent and, as a result, can push your asset allocations above or below their targets more frequently.

“Rebalancing helps keep your exposure to any single asset class within acceptable limits, so that market events don’t hit you harder than absolutely necessary,” says Liz Ann. (See “Rebalancing act,” below.)

Rising interest rates

You won’t find many retirees complaining about higher rates of return on Treasuries and other fixed income investments. But for many investors, rising rates can undercut their bond and stock portfolios.

For example, as rates rise, bond prices generally decline, spurring some investors to sell. However, just as you wouldn’t want to unload your equity positions at the bottom of the market, neither should you rush for the exits where your bond holdings are concerned.

Instead, consider shortening the duration of the bonds in your portfolio if you think interest rates are likely to keep climbing, says Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. “The shorter the term of the bond, the sooner you can reinvest your capital and capture the higher yields that tend to accompany rising rates,” she says.

Investment-grade floating-rate notes, or floaters, are a particularly good way to implement this strategy. Not only do they have very short durations, but they also do well when short-term rates are rising because their yields rise as well.

Less directly, rising rates can detract from your stock portfolio, as increased borrowing costs squeeze company profits. As a result, you might consider cutting back on stocks—but not below the lower end of your equity-allocation range—and shifting the money into an interest-bearing savings account, a money market fund or a short-term certificate of deposit.

That said, some companies, such as those in the Financials sector, tend to benefit from higher rates because they can earn more on the money they lend. Thus, upping your exposure to banks and other lenders might also make sense in an environment of rising rates.

Inflation

Just as rising interest rates can increase a company’s borrowing costs, so too can inflation boost the cost of goods and services, potentially compromising company valuations. At times like these, investors commonly seek out Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), along with precious metals and other commodities whose prices tend to rise alongside inflation.

However, even these relatively safe investment vehicles can react differently to inflation depending on what’s behind it, according to new research by Charles Schwab Investment Management (CSIM). For example, TIPS were among the best-performing assets during those times since 1982 when inflation was driven by cost increases on raw materials—but among the worst when inflation was caused by rising prices for materials coupled with strong demand.

“It’s never as simple as saying, OK, during times of higher inflation you should add these four asset classes, because inflation isn’t driven by one thing,” says Liz Ann. Rather, CSIM’s research concluded that a well-diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds and cash is the best antidote to higher inflation—whatever its cause.

Stocks, in particular, may be worth hanging on to. While it’s true that valuations have historically suffered during periods of hyperinflation, inflation today is far tamer. “Indeed, if you look at the long term, stocks tend to be a better inflation hedge than gold,” Liz Ann says.

No silver bullets

The challenge for investors is that volatility, inflation and rising interest rates rarely occur in isolation, and a solution purported to address one can intensify the effects of another.

“There are always trade-offs with any single solution, and what works this time might not work the next,” Mark says. “In the end, the best portfolio isn’t one that’s perfectly positioned for any single market environment but rather one that’s built to weather all kinds of forces. And holding a healthy mix of assets based on your goals is a great way to achieve that.”

What You Can Do Next

Discuss your goals with a Certified Financial Plannerprofessional when you enroll in Schwab Intelligent Advisory™.

Q&A: Dan Heath and Mark Riepe on Behavioral Finance
A Guide to Alternative Investments

Important Disclosures

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.

Fixed-income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed-income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are inflationlinked securities issued by the US Government whose principal value is adjusted periodically in accordance with the rise and fall in the inflation rate. Thus, the dividend amount payable is also impacted by variations in the inflation rate, as it is based upon the principal value of the bond. It may fluctuate up or down. Repayment at maturity is guaranteed by the US Government and may be adjusted for inflation to become the greater of the original face amount at issuance or that face amount plus an adjustment for inflation.

Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and cannot protect against losses in a declining market.

The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

Schwab Intelligent Advisory is made available through Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., a dually registered investment advisor and broker-dealer.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly.

The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market.

Source: Bloomberg Index Services Limited. BLOOMBERG® is a trademark and service mark of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates (collectively “Bloomberg”). BARCLAYS® is a trademark and service mark of Barclays Bank Plc (collectively with its affiliates, “Barclays”), used under license. Bloomberg or Bloomberg’s licensors, including Barclays, own all proprietary rights in the Bloomberg Barclays Indices. Neither Bloomberg nor Barclays approves or endorses this material, or guarantees the accuracy or completeness of any information herein, or makes any warranty, express or implied, as to the results to be obtained therefrom and, to the maximum extent allowed by law, neither shall have any liability or responsibility for injury or damages arising in connection therewith.

The S&P 500 Index is a market-capitalization-weighted index comprising 500 widely traded stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry-group representation.

(0818-8C5W)

Thumbs up / down votes are submitted voluntarily by readers and are not meant to suggest the future performance or suitability of any account type, product or service for any particular reader and may not be representative of the experience of other readers. When displayed, thumbs up / down vote counts represent whether people found the content helpful or not helpful and are not intended as a testimonial. Any written feedback or comments collected on this page will not be published. Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. may in its sole discretion re-set the vote count to zero, remove votes appearing to be generated by robots or scripts, or remove the modules used to collect feedback and votes.