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A Bear-Market Emergency Kit

Bull markets can run for a long time—but they can’t run forever. And when a bull stops running, it’s better to be prepared than surprised. So how do you prepare? Here are seven things to do:

1. Know that you have the resources to weather a crisis

“Some people panic in a bear market because they don’t know whether they have enough cash to handle near-term goals,” says Mark Riepe, senior vice president at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. Ideally, you won’t have to face this question in a crisis—because you should know the answer.

If you’re retired, knowing that you have the next couple years’ worth of living expenses in a bank account—and a few more years’ worth in bonds that mature when you need the money—can help keep you calm and clear-headed, Mark says. “You’re going to react a lot differently than someone who gets blindsided and has never laid that groundwork. 

“It’s not just about your risk tolerance,” he adds. “It’s about your financial capacity to handle risk.” You might feel risk tolerant, but if you haven’t structured your investments to handle a sharp drop, you may have to make painful adjustments to your lifestyle when the crisis happens.

2. Match your money to your goals

Map out a plan that takes into account what you’re saving for, whether near-term expenses or future financial goals like college tuition or retirement. Structure your portfolio to match those goals.

Money that you’ll need in the short term or that you can’t afford to lose—the down payment on a home, for example—is best invested in relatively stable assets, such as money market funds, certificates of deposit (CDs), or Treasury bills. Goals that need funding in three to five years should be addressed with a mixture of investment-grade bonds and CDs. For money you won’t need for five or more years, consider assets with the potential to grow, such as stocks, which are more volatile.

3. Remember: Downturns don’t last

The Schwab Center for Financial Research looked at both bull and bear markets in the S&P 500 going back to the late ’60s and found that the average bull ran for about six years, delivering an average cumulative return of over 200%. The average bear market lasted a little under a year and a half, delivering an average cumulative loss of 39%. The longest of the bears was a little more than two years—and was followed by a nearly five-year bull run.

Bear markets generally occur every 4 to 5 years

S&P 500 peak-to-trough or trough-to-peak price returns (February 1966–September 2018)

Bear markets generally occur every 4 to 5 years.

Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research with data provided by Bloomberg. A bear market is usually defined as a decline of 20% or greater. Duration is measured as the number of days from the previous peak close to the lowest close reached after it has fallen at least 20%, and uses a 30/360 date conversion (30 days a month/360 days a year). The market is represented by the S&P 500 index and does not include reinvestment of dividends or capital gains. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

How does this impact your bear market kit? Even if you find yourself headed into the second year of a bear market, remember that it won’t last. No bull market endures forever; neither does a bear. And historically, the market’s upward movement has tended to prevail over the declines long-term.

4. Keep your portfolio diversified

Let’s say there is a slump—is there a remedy to help your portfolio get back on its feet?

Being well diversified can help cushion against losses. In every bear market there are likely certain segments of the markets that get hit much harder than others. It’s extremely difficult to forecast these ahead of time, so a preventive measure you can take now is to diversify within the equity market as well as across asset classes. Consider the assets you’ve set aside for medium-term needs or goals. Being diversified means you have a wide variety of investment-grade bonds—corporate, municipals, Treasuries, and possibly foreign issues. And they should have varying maturity dates, from short-term to mid-term, so you always have some bonds maturing and providing you with either income or money to reinvest.

Your long-term assets should be divvied up among a wide array of domestic stocks—big and small, fast-growing and dividend-paying—as well as international stocks, real estate investment trusts (REITs) and commodities, says Mark. That mix gives you exposure to asset classes that tend to move at different times and speeds, he says.

5. Don’t miss out on market rebounds

“It’s easy to say that risk doesn’t bother you when the markets are near all-time highs,” says Mark. “A better indicator is what you did in the last downturn.”

Many investors sold at the bottom of the market in March 2009, turning temporary paper losses into real, wealth-crushing losses. Mutual fund outflows were about $21.6 billion that month, according to the Investment Company Institute. Investors who failed to get back in the market in a timely fashion would have missed the beginning of one of the strongest bull markets in history.

To get a sense of what’s at stake when you pull out of the market, even temporarily, during the average bear market, the Schwab Center for Financial Research compared the returns from four hypothetical portfolios:

  • One that remained 100%-invested in stocks as the market touched its bear-market low and then rebounded.
  • One that was diverted to short-term T-bills for a month after the market bottomed before returning to a 100% stock allocation.
  • One that was diverted to T-bills for three months after the market bottomed before returning to a 100% stock allocation.
  • One that was diverted to T-bills for six months after the market bottomed before returning to a 100% stock allocation. 

As you can see in the table below, the all-stock portfolio was the best performer and was still delivering higher returns than the other portfolios three years after the market bottomed. But investors in that all-stock portfolio hard to stay invested at literally the lowest point of the market cycle. Those who waited until the skies were clearer (e.g., a month after the low point of the cycle, or three months, or even six months) still participated in the recovery, but at a far smaller rate.

Bear market recoveries are often front-loaded

Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research with data from Morningstar, Inc. The market is represented by the S&P 500® TR Index, using data from January 1970–December 2017. T-bills are represented by the total returns of the Ibbotson U.S. 30-day Treasury Bill Index. Since 1970, there have been a total of five periods where the market dropped by 20% or more. The cumulative return for each period and scenario is calculated as the simple average of the cumulative returns (including reinvestment of dividends and capital gains) from each period and scenario.  Past performance is no indication of future results.

Timing the market is very difficult—no one knows for sure when the bottom will come—so if you can tolerate it, riding out a bear market may be worth it.

6. Include cash in your kit

Cash is one of the lowest returning asset classes, but don’t let that blind you to its long-term potential as an agent of diversification in your portfolio. Cash has a very low correlation to other asset classes, so it can offer protection against volatility. Another advantage: Cash reserves can come in handy in down markets. With cash you can buy in when prices are attractively low—without having to sell securities at a loss, if they are also at a low point. So cash can provide your portfolio with some stability (low correlation, low volatility) and flexibility (to buy new investments without selling old ones cheap).

7. Find a financial professional you can count on

Finally, your bear market kit could benefit from having a built-in buddy system, so to speak. Meaning, if you’re not sure how to structure your portfolio correctly, or you think you’d be tempted to do something rash in a market slide, you should find a financial professional you trust to collaborate with you. That person can walk you through a complete portfolio review and help prepare you and your portfolio for times when the market gets tough.

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Important Disclosures

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks, including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, political instability, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets.

Investing in REITs may pose additional risks such as real estate industry risk, interest rate risk and liquidity risk.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly.

The S&P 500 Index is a market-capitalization weighted index that consists of 500 widely traded stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation.

Ibbotson US 30-Day Treasury Bills is an unweighted index which measures the performance of one-month maturity US Treasury bills.

The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

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