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Insights & Ideas

Keeping you at the forefront of modern investing
CONTENT WITH International
Recent market volatility has made some investors wonder if the economic cycle is ending and stocks are at the start of a prolonged decline. One indicator we are watching for signs of the potential for a recession and a deeper and prolonged decline in stocks is the gap between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. This indicator suggests that the risks are rising.
Globally diversifying your portfolio can help cushion against wild market swings and can likely give you more consistent performance over time.
Market conditions can change quickly. It’s important for investors to be prepared for those changes ahead of time—perhaps even more so now.
We believe there are three positives, three negatives and three wildcards for stock market performance in the fourth quarter. We expect the balance of these factors to result in further gains for global stocks.
Cryptocurrency can yield big gains, but even bigger risks.
EM stocks are prone to high volatility, as we have experienced this year. We will be watching the signs closely to see if this is typical volatility or something leading to a deeper and more prolonged downturn.
Liz Ann Sonders highlights two things about the so-called trade war with China that she believes don’t get the attention they deserve.
The U.S. bond market has been a good indicator of peaks in international stock markets. This is now important since the yield curve in the U.S. has flattened more than in Europe.
The steep drop in emerging market bonds and currencies has improved valuations, but that doesn’t mean investors are being fairly compensated for the risk.
There are some reasons to think that the probability of a repeat of a past crisis has eased. The changes we have seen should help reduce the vulnerability of the global system to shocks like those of the past. Of course, risk has not been entirely eliminated from the system.
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