Gold & Silver Hit New Highs Ahead of Powell Speech

(Tuesday market open) Stock futures were basically even early Tuesday ahead of an economic outlook speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Friday's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—an inflation metric watched closely by the Fed. Powell speaks at 12:35 p.m. ET following several somewhat conservative remarks from other Fed policy makers yesterday. Every Fed voter supported last week's rate cut, but Powell's thoughts on the possible future path—assuming he offers them—carry more weight than from any other policy maker.

Monday's relatively hawkish Fed comments didn't discourage investors much, judging by the rally to fresh record highs for major indexes. Investors stayed in a buying mood after Nvidia (NVDA) and OpenAI announced a strategic partnership to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems for OpenAI's next-generation AI infrastructure. This will represent millions of Nvidia graphics processing units (GPU's) and is above and beyond Nvidia's previous sales guidance delivered last month, the company told CNBC. Nvidia will also invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI to support the buildout of data center capacity, Barron's reported. Shares of Nvidia posted an all-time intraday high yesterday.

Gold futures rallied 1.08% in early action, creating another new record high. Gold has risen by more than 44% this year. Silver futures also hit a new all-time high, rallying 0.74% taking its year-to-date returns above 52%. The performance of precious metals may have gone relatively unnoticed for many investors focused on AI stocks. However, stubborn inflation numbers and the Fed's need for liquidity have helped these commodities shine.

1. Breadth lingers below year-ago level: When earnings season begins next month, one trend to follow is whether the rest of the market's earnings growth starts to catch up with growth from the Magnificent Seven. Breadth remains above 60% in terms of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages, but that's low compared to above 80% a year ago and might indicate more concentration in the largest names. A healthier market is one where a rising tide lifts most boats, which can help sustain rallies even when the biggest names hit turbulence. Lower interest rates could make money cheaper to borrow, perhaps supporting margins of smaller firms that rely more on loans. But margins might face pressure due partly to tariffs. "We haven't seen a meaningful move higher in overall inflation driven by tariffs," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Schwab, in a recent podcast. "Data suggest that what we are seeing is the start of some margin pressure because of tariffs, given that companies so far are absorbing more of the tariff hit versus passing it on to the consumer. That could begin a spiral into weaker labor markets to the extent that companies, for whatever reason, feel they can't pass on those higher tariff-related costs. One way to cut costs elsewhere is on the labor-market side of things."
    
2. Money flow if rates go lower: One thing to watch if rates head much lower is the possible flow of cash back into stocks and other more volatile assets and away from CDs and money market funds. Typically, banks quickly cut yields for those products after a rate cut, which can stifle demand for fixed income and send money hunting for opportunity elsewhere. When rates stayed low for a decade after the Great Recession of 2007–2009, stocks steadily rallied amid the prevailing sense of TINA, or "there is no alternative." While that wasn't truly the case and no one expects rates to go back to those all-time lows, falling yields on fixed income did put stocks on a pedestal then. This time, there's more competition outside of stocks, thanks to the popularity of cryptocurrencies, the historic rally in gold, and increased ability for investment in non-public companies.
    
3. Housing supply and demand: Data on new and existing home sales (due out tomorrow and Thursday, respectively) will offer clues to any possible healing in the balance of supply and demand in the housing market in August, as mortgage rates pushed to their lowest level since October 2024. With inventories ticking up and weighing on prices, a healthier balance might be on the horizon, Schwab's Sonders and Schwab Senior Investment Strategist Kevin Gordon wrote in an analysis earlier this month. New home sales, due at 10 a.m. ET Wednesday, are seen at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 650,000 in August, essentially unchanged from 652,000 in July, according to Briefing.com. Investors once again will likely watch the median sales price, which dipped nearly 6% year over year in July. On Thursday, investors might want to examine the supply and sales of existing homes, which historically make up a majority of the market. In recent months, the supply of new homes has topped nine months’ worth of sales, roughly double the supply of existing homes. Any sign that lower mortgage rates are helping existing homeowners depart their extraordinarily low post-pandemic mortgage rates could signal the start of an easing supply crunch ahead.

• Nvidia ended Monday up nearly 4% after announcing the OpenAI partnership. But Nvidia competitor Broadcom (AVGO) fell 1.8% amid fears the deal could hurt it competitively.
   
• Apple (AAPL) approached all-time peaks Monday, rising 4.3% as Wedbush raised its price target to $310 on signs of strong early demand for the iPhone 17. It's late September, but Monday's move finally made Apple's stock positive for the year after it spent most of the year to date well below its late-December highs on worries it's fallen behind in the AI race.
   
• Bitcoin (/BTC) dropped 2.7% Monday along with a drop in other cryptocurrency products. It rose slightly early today. This is traditionally a weak period seasonally, but October tends to be stronger. Past isn't precedent, however.
   
• Boeing (BA) traded 2.52% higher in overnight trading on news the U.S. and China are nearing a trade deal that could include up to 500 aircraft.
   
• Tesla (TSLA) surged nearly 2% Monday after getting an upgrade from Baird and seeing its price target elevated by Piper Sandler.
   
• Micron (MU) rose 1% ahead of its earnings due after the close today. Micron beat analysts' expectations last time out and Morgan Stanley upgraded shares of three chip component suppliers early Monday. Micron's forecast in June was solid, with the company seeing strong demand in the high-bandwidth memory market due to the AI boom, CNBC reported at the time.
   
• The 10-year Treasury note yield finished flat at 4.14% yesterday, still up from lows near 4% ahead of the Fed rate cut. Today features a $69 billion 2-year note auction, results of which are due by early afternoon. Recent auctions saw solid demand, but any sign of weakening might put pressure on Treasuries and send yields higher, a possible headwind for stocks.

Tracking China's rally: Despite a slowdown in China's economy, the Shanghai Composite Index is at 10-year highs. Is the recent gain in Chinese equities sustainable? Check out thoughts on this from Michelle Gibley, director of international research at Schwab, in her latest analysis.

The 10-year Treasury yield (TNX:CGI—candlesticks) has settled into a long trading range over the last two years between roughly 4% and 4.5% (bottom and top red lines), though it has gone above and below that infrequently during this stretch. It now trades about 23 basis points under the 200-day moving average (blue line) of 4.36% and well below the two-year high recorded in late 2023 at just below 5%. Investors appear comfortable with the range it's in, though it's far above levels seen heading into the pandemic and just afterward. The 4.25% level—near the 50-day moving average—might represent near-term resistance if yields climb, said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives analysis at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

September 24: August new home sales and expected earnings from KB Home (KBH) and Worthington Steel (WS).
September 25: August durable orders, second quarter GDP—third estimate, and expected earnings from Accenture (ACN), CarMax (KMX), and Costco (COST).
September 26: August PCE prices, personal spending, personal income, University of Michigan final September consumer sentiment.
September 29: Expected earnings from Carnival (CCL).
September 30: September Consumer Confidence, August JOLTS job openings, and expected earnings from Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) and Nike (NKE).