Gains Pause Despite Peace Hopes, Bank Earnings

Published as of: April 15, 2026, 9:08 a.m. ET

1. Regional economies probed: The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report on regional U.S. economies is due at 2 p.m. ET, providing a ground-level view of the U.S. economy drawn from all 12 Fed districts. The release could give investors a sense of how the war and rise in oil prices are affecting businesses surveyed over the last few weeks, though investors should remember these anecdotes can be misleading and should be scrutinized for recurring themes. One theme the report might discuss is how businesses are handling higher input costs from oil. Are they "eating" the costs, waiting to pass them along to consumers, or simply letting them go straight to consumers? The hot Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March suggests the latter, but yesterday's Producer Price Index (PPI) threw some confusion into the works as it rose less than expected. This could mean producers aren't yet seeing a major impact on their businesses. The last Beige Book cited slight to moderate economic improvement in seven of the 12 districts, but the number reporting flat to lower economic activity rose to five from four. Winter storms hurt economic activity then, while prices rose lightly to moderately. Comparisons today might be illuminating.
    
2. Divorce court for equities/oil? Despite a rise in oil prices on Monday, Wall Street staged a firm rally to start the week. Though stocks resumed their correlation with oil yesterday—rising as oil fell—the sessions before that showed the stock market has tentatively divorced itself from crude. Not every rally in oil sets off selling in equities, as it did last month, and the "buy the dip" philosophy made an appearance again in recent sessions. Wall Street's lesser emphasis on crude might reflect the CME futures curve, where contracts farther out like October and November trade below $80 per barrel. This means for now, the futures market prices in at least some relief at the pump this year. Crude traded near $65 before the war, so the market doesn't suggest a return to those relatively cheap levels this year. The sudden drop in crude and less market correlation doesn't mean the world economy is out of the woods, however. The International Monetary Fund, or IMF, said Tuesday that the war will slow global economic growth, adding that the "outlook has abruptly darkened" and the war interrupted what had been a steady growth trajectory.
    
3. Strong earnings seen abroad, too, but war interrupts global growth: Earnings growth is expected to be double digits again for S&P 500 stocks, analysts say, though they've set the bar high and guidance could be watched for any wobbles considering the war and impacts on oil. Abroad, earnings estimates are also up, and overseas markets are keying off that. Earnings growth estimates vary across countries, but the tech sector has seen uneven revisions in many regions, falling notably in China due to increased capital expenditures. "The question is what happens once earnings season occurs, and whether companies will guide downward or upward, to the extent higher input prices are absorbed into profit margins or passed along to end customers," said Michelle Gibley, director of international equity research at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). In other overseas news, stay tuned late tonight for updated data from China, including first quarter gross domestic product, or GDP. Consensus is for 4.8%, up from the prior 4.5% but still below the long-term growth rate of 5%. Industrial production is also seen growing less quickly than previously.

• ASML, which makes tools required to manufacture advanced chips, slipped 1.6% after earnings this morning. Despite results that topped expectations, the company's shares were down on disappointing second quarter guidance, which came in below consensus. For the full year, ASML issued guidance in line with expectations.
   
• Chip stocks generally slipped this morning, possibly on profit taking after several days of solid rallies but also possibly on ASML's weak second quarter forecast. Some of the names trading lower ahead of the open included Micron (MU), CoreWeave (CRWV), Western Digital (WDC), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
   
• Bank of America inched up on its better-than-expected earnings. The company beat on revenue and earnings, while net interest income powered 9% higher year over year. The company also lowered its provision for credit losses, hinting that credit conditions don't represent a major issue. The bank said in its release it saw "solid consumer spending and stable asset quality."
   
• Morgan Stanley added 2.6% following its better-than-expected quarterly results. Provisions for credit losses fell, and fixed income trading revenue rose from a year ago. Trading results looked healthy in fixed income and equities, which both rose sharply from a year ago driven by rising market volatility. Equity net revenue climbed 25% and fixed income net revenue rose 29%.
   
• Broadcom (AVGO) enjoyed 2.7% early gains as it announced a multi-year partnership with Meta Platforms to support Meta's AI compute infrastructure.
   
• Nike (NKE) ran up 3% early today following insider purchases of the company's stock, including by its president and CEO.
   
• Snap (SNAP) jumped 6% in early trading after the company announced plans to slash up to 16% of its global workforce, citing AI-driven efficiencies.
   
• Tesla (TSLA) rose 3.3% Tuesday after an upgrade from UBS.
   
• Chances of a pause at this month's Fed meeting remained near 100% this morning, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Chances of at least one cut this year are near 30%. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC today that he understands if the Fed wants to wait on cuts in the current climate but noted that core inflation—excluding food and energy—is in a downward trend. He also expects the war to slow first quarter GDP growth.
   
• Though yesterday's March Producer Price Index (PPI) report was slightly milder than expected, some components that feed into the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation metric, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, climbed moderately, including airfares. March import prices rose 0.8%, the government said today, though the gain was only 0.6% when stripping out oil, down from 0.8% in February.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

April 16: March industrial production and expected earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), PepsiCo (PEP), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Prologis (PLD), Marsh & McLennan (MRSH), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Travelers (TRV), Infosys (INFY), Netflix (NFLX), and Alcoa (AA).

April 17: March housing starts and building permits and expected earnings from Truist Financial (TFC), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), and State Street (STT).

April 20: Expected earnings from Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) and Steel Dynamics (STLD).

April 21: Expected earnings from GE Aerospace (GE), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), RTX (RTX), Danaher (DHR), Northrup Grumman (NOC), 3M (MMM), D.R Horton (DHI), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Chubb Limited (CB), Capital One Financial (COF), and United Airlines (UAL).

April 22: Expected earnings from GE Vernova (GEV), Philip Morris (PM), AT&T (T), Boeing (BA), Tesla (TSLA), Lam Research (LRCK), IBM (IBM), Texas Instruments (TXN), ServiceNow (NOW), and CSX (CSX).