Published as of: June 4, 2025, 9:23 a.m. ET
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| The markets | Last price | Change | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500® index | 5,970.37 | +34.43 | +0.58% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average® | 42,519.64 | +214.16 | +0.51 |
| Nasdaq Composite® | 19,398.96 | +156.34 | +0.81 |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.40% | -0.06 | -- |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 99.08 | -0.15 | -0.15% |
| Cboe Volatility Index® | 17.67 | -0.02 | -0.01% |
| WTI Crude Oil | $62.94 | -0.47 | -0.74% |
| Bitcoin | $105,540 | -795 | -0.69% |
Disclosure
Major index values are as of Tuesday's close; others are as of 8:52 a.m. ET.
(Wednesday market open) Stocks edged toward three-month highs early Wednesday but then lost momentum as fresh jobs data put up a caution sign. The ADP private sector jobs report showed only 37,000 positions added in May, the lowest in more than two years and well below expectations for around 115,000. Typically, this data doesn't correlate with the official government number due Friday, so it's unclear how big an impact it might have as trading continues. Even so, Treasury yields dropped sharply.
For the government's official May nonfarm payrolls on Friday, analysts see jobs growth of 130,000, down from 177,000 in April, but a miss might jump-start hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Today's quick reversal of early gains after ADP show how sensitive the market is to jobs data, something to keep in mind for Friday with some analysts expecting as few as 95,000 jobs created. While jobs remain center stage, so does trade after President Trump posted that China's President Xi is difficult to make a trade deal with. There's still no verification that the two will talk this week, and Trump officially doubled U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%.
The potential impact of tariffs on the economy will get another look early tomorrow with monthly layoffs data and weekly jobless claims, which popped to 240,000 last week and raised a few eyebrows. Another number in that realm might cause concerns. Before that, investors will watch for ISM Services PMI® for May later today, with Briefing.com projecting a headline of 52. Anything above 50 signifies expansion. Strong hiring data and enthusiasm about the semiconductor sector after Nvidia's (NVDA) solid results last week and before Broadcom (AVGO) earnings tomorrow helped send eight of 11 S&P 500 sectors to higher closes Tuesday. Small caps had a strong session, too.
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Three things to watch
JOLTS sends mixed message: Tuesday's rally came after the April Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed stronger-than-expected hiring but rising layoffs. That puts the focus squarely on tomorrow morning's Challenger, Gray & Christmas May layoffs data and initial weekly jobless claims before the jobs report Friday. Investors will want to watch whether any cracks develop in hard data, with bullish investors possibly welcoming a miss on Friday's jobs report, as that presumably would increase pressure on the Fed to lower rates for the first time since last December. The market now projects the highest odds of two rate cuts this year, up slightly from a week ago thanks in part to last Friday's benign inflation data. Meanwhile, Tuesday's JOLTS data suggests companies are getting more comfortable cutting jobs even though they struggled to find workers in the post-pandemic period. Still, these layoffs aren't showing up in weekly jobless claims data so far. The lower quits rate in JOLTS suggests workers are less willing to leave old jobs, either worried about finding new work or not seeing new opportunities. Of course, it's only one month of data, so it's hard to draw firm conclusions.
Volatility edges lower, but for how long? Both stock and fixed income market volatility were relatively muted early this week, but Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) futures are in contango, meaning market participants expect VIX to rise as the year continues to back above 20, traditionally a pivotal level. Participants don't seem committed to taking major new positions with so much confusion around trade, geopolitics, and U.S. budget negotiations, though of course any of this could change suddenly. Trading volume was relatively light to start the week, potentially raising questions about how much conviction was behind the rally.
Market momentum appears to wane: The momentum-indicating Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now just below 65 for the SPX, down from 71 when the index traded at current levels back in mid-May. That's a divergence that could suggest less bullish force and conviction. The market might need a major trade deal to take the next leg up and test all-time highs posted in February, and there's about a month until the 90-day extension of tariffs expires.
On the move
CrowdStrike (CRWD) fell 6.7% in pre-market trading despite beating analysts' earnings expectations and reporting in-line revenues. Its guidance for second quarter revenue missed Wall Street's forecast.
Nvidia and Broadcom both climbed about 0.8% ahead of the open, helping the tech sector roll up more gains after strength yesterday. Broadcom hit a record high Tuesday ahead of tomorrow's earnings after it began shipments of its new data center switch designed to power AI applications.
Apple (AAPL) shares fell slightly after the company received a rare downgrade from Needham, which lowered shares to a Hold based on what it called "threats" to Apple's near-term revenue and EPS growth. It also said the stock looks expensive.
Wells Fargo (WFC) shares popped 1.45% as the Fed said it had lifted the bank's asset cap, one of the last orders still in place from the fake accounts scandal several years ago.
Dollar Tree (DLTR) fell 2.1% in pre-market trading despite quarterly results that beat analysts' thinking. It also raised guidance. The firm reported same-store sales growth of 5.4%.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) climbed 6.7% ahead of the open after the info tech company beat analysts' second quarter estimates, citing strong AI demand.
Constellation Energy (CEG) fell 3% ahead of the open after getting downgraded to Neutral from Buy by Citigroup (C).
Bitcoin (/BTC) fell nearly 1% and most other cryptocurrencies also lost ground in the early going, with a corresponding drop for crypto-related stock MicroStrategy (MSTR). Crypto has been consolidating this week after bitcoin recently hit all-time highs.
The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield dropped six basis points back to 4.40% after the ADP jobs number this morning. The Fed's Beige Book of regional economic data comes later today, along with a 4-month auction. Next week looks busy for Treasury auctions.
This week marked the two-month anniversary of tariff "liberation day" when President Trump's proposed trade policy sent stocks plummeting before a sharp May reversal. Since then, info tech has been the best S&P 500 sector performer while energy has been the worst. The S&P 500 index (SPX) finished at a three-month high yesterday, eclipsing the mid-May closing high by seven points but still making no serious test of 6,000. It hasn't been above that since an intraday move on February 26.
As of early Wednesday, futures trading indicated just a 1% chance of a Fed rate cut in June, and 24% in July, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
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Chart of the day
Data source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, Nasdaq. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
The S&P 500 index (SPX—purple line) posted a three-month high close yesterday, but it's been the beneficiary of a huge move by the heavily weighted PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX—blue line). The SPX is up 5.66% over the last month, helped in part by that huge move in the SOX, which includes heavyweights like Nvidia and Broadcom. Without the influence of market capitalization, the overall market is up a solid 3.77% last month as measured by the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW—candlestick), which weighs all stocks the same.
The week ahead
Check out the Investors' Calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.
June 5: ECB rate decision and expected earnings from Broadcom (AVGO), Ciena (CIEN), lululemon (LULU), and Petco (WOOF).
June 6: May nonfarm payrolls.
June 9: Expected earnings from Casey's General (CASY).
June 10: Expected earnings from GameStop (GME) and Stitch Fix (SFIX).
June 11: May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and expected earnings from Chewy (CHWY).
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