Holiday Week Kicks Off with Tech Gains After Skid
Published as of: November 24, 2025, 9:12 a.m. ET
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Disclosure
Major index values are as of Thursday's close; others are as of 8:43 a.m. ET.
(Monday market open) There's plenty of business ahead before investors tuck into their Thanksgiving meals. A host of Treasury auctions, several data points, and a handful of earnings reports line the path toward Thursday's holiday closure, while caution remains after last week's sell-off took the S&P 500 index down 2%. Stocks built on Friday's gains overnight, and the next two days might tell most of this week's story before many participants head out ahead of the break.
The market's recent descent to two-month lows reflects wobbles in the crypto market, sudden risk-off sentiment, less clarity about the economy, possible late-year profit taking, and cloudiness surrounding the Federal Reserve's next move. The Fed fog lifted slightly on Friday after New York Fed President John Williams sounded amenable to a near-term rate cut, and the CME FedWatch Tool now builds in 73% odds of a December easing. That doesn't square with some expert views. "Williams is an influential member, but we believe a cut in December is unlikely," said Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR).
This week features several Treasury auctions, including a 2-year today following lackluster demand earlier this month. Tomorrow brings the delayed September Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales reports. Checking technicals, Friday's close looked positive as the S&P 500 index finished above its 100-day moving average. That trendline, now at 6,548, forms key support. "The price action is encouraging," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy, SCFR. "Investors appear to have a line in the sand to trade against and the near-term assessment is moderately bullish."
Three things to watch
- Is a bitcoin winter coming? Bitcoin is now down more than 30% from its all-time high, and many investors are wondering whether it's experiencing a mere bear market or the early days of a "winter." The next level to watch is around $79,000, just under the low reached on Friday, said Jim Ferraioli, director of digital currencies research and strategy, SCFR. That's because a lot of bitcoin was accumulated around that level, so a move through there will test many investors' willingness to endure the pain of paper losses and hold on for the next cycle up, Ferraioli said.
- VIX could help gauge direction: The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, is important to track this week for possible insight into Wall Street's next move. It soared above 28 on Thursday before cooling off by Friday's close. It's still elevated near 23, compared with its 200-day moving average under 20. "A move below 20 would be more ideal for the bulls in my view," my colleague Peterson said in the latest Schwab Weekly Trader's Outlook. "There will be a barrage of economic data hitting the tape, so the potential for market volatility is there. I'm not sure if the recent pullback in stocks or investor concerns around AI have been fully played out yet." Tomorrow's PPI—which according to Briefing.com consensus could rise 0.3% on a headline basis and 0.2% for core excluding energy and food—now becomes a touchpoint. An in-line reading could keep volatility more tame, while any sign of swelling inflation would likely hurt rate cut hopes and send it up again. Historically, VIX readings of 25 or more tend to spook stocks, and the VIX has been up five consecutive weeks, a rare occurrence. Technically, the long stock market uptrend seems to be losing steam and there's a good chance of more choppiness before year-end.
- Third-quarter revenue growth impressed: Tomorrow features a packed earnings schedule, highlighted by Alibaba (BABA), Best Buy (BBY), and Dell (DELL). Last week saw many companies top revenue consensus, including Walmart (WMT), Nvidia (NVDA), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), TJX (TJX), and Home Depot (HD). Though earnings per share more often exceed analysts' expectations, revenue can be more meaningful. It closely measures demand, while earnings can rise based on "in the weeds" factors like margins and share buybacks. With 95% of S&P 500 companies now reporting, 83% reported third-quarter earnings per share "beats," according to FactSet, and 76% reported positive revenue surprises. Revenue growth of 8.4% is the best since the third quarter of 2022, when companies had relatively easy comparisons against Covid-era results. Revenue growth will slip to 5.4% in the fourth quarter and even lower in the first quarter of 2026, FactSet predicted, before accelerating later next year.
On the move
- Nvidia (NVDA), which suffered its lowest close Friday since late September despite impressing with earnings and guidance, was up about 0.5% early today, trailing some of its AI peers. Still, there's now more optimism that Nvidia could have a path to sell some of its chips in China after Reuters and Bloomberg reported that late last week.
- Novo-Nordisk (NVO) cratered more than 11% early Monday after the company announced that its Ozempic drug for diabetes and weight loss didn't appear to slow Alzheimer's disease progression. Shares of Biogen (BIIB), which has a medication for Alzheimer's, climbed 4%.
- Eli Lilly (LLY) sank nearly 1% in sympathy with Novo Nordisk amid ideas that GLP-1 drugs—which Lilly also makes—might not be beneficial in treating Alzheimer's. Health care was a leading sector last week as many investors rotated out of tech, a trend worth tracking.
- AI-related shares, including Broadcom (AVGO), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), CoreWeave (CRWV), Micron (MU), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), and Palantir (PLTR), all rose 1% to 2% this morning, putting on more muscle after the sector climbed Friday.
- Alibaba (BABA), which reports early tomorrow, rose 4% ahead of the open following strong early demand for its new chatbot app, Barron's reported. This could potentially benefit stocks in the wider AI landscape, showing firm consumer demand for the technology.
- Bitcoin (/BTC) rose 2% in early trading while shares of crypto-related firms Coinbase (COIN),Circle Internet Group (CRCL), and Strategy (MSTR) also climbed slightly.
- MP Materials (MP) climbed 3.5% in early action following an upgrade to Outperform by BMO Capital, which previously rated shares Underperform. U.S. rare earth supply chain volatility has become "blatantly apparent," the analyst told investors in a note.
- Merck (MRK) rose 2.4% ahead of the open after Wells Fargo upgraded shares to Overweight from Equal Weight and raised its target price. The company is entering a catalyst-rich period in the next 12-18 months with readouts across its pipeline, the analyst notes.
- Market breadth remains weak. Despite Friday's slight comeback, with only 38% of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages by the end of last week. The 100-day moving average is 55%, reflecting what's been a broad retreat beyond just AI and other tech firms.
- Homebuilder shares led the pack Friday on hopes of falling interest rates, with stocks like KB Home (KBH), D.R. Horton (DHI), and Lennar (LEN) all up 6% or more. These three are all down from late summer highs, however.
- Tesla (TSLA) is up 2% this morning after sinking to a two-month low Friday. Early strength could reflect Tesla's announcement that it's close to finalizing its latest AI chip, CNBC reported.
- Though stocks recovered slightly Friday, major indexes still finished that day well off their intraday highs, losing substantial ground in the final half hour in what could be a sign that caution remains the watchword.
- Eight of 11 S&P sectors fell last week, but communication services rose more than 3%, thanks partly to Alphabet's (GOOGL) leadership as shares rose more than 8% over those five days. Alphabet drew support from investors who perceive the company taking a lead in monetizing AI. Shares are up 58% year to date, easily leading the Magnificent Seven, and climbed another 4% this morning after Alphabet launched its latest AI model, Gemini 3, last week.
More insights from Schwab
Anyone following the markets hears plenty about the Cboe Volatility Index. Traders use products tied to VIX to hedge their portfolios against market declines, which is why VIX is sometimes called the "fear index." Trading VIX carries significant risk, so learn some of the potential drawbacks and possible benefits in Schwab's latest trading article.
Chart of the day
Data source: FTSE Russell. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
Though it wasn't clear at the time, the small-cap Russell 2000 index (RUT-candlesticks) posted its intraday peak in mid-October a couple of weeks before the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes hit their respective highs. A big drop in the RUT the day after that peak might have been one clue of broader market weakness to come as the small-cap index appeared once again to play the role of leading direction for the rest of the market. Now, the index is back just above its 100-day moving average (red line) and well above the 200-day (blue line). But with a gain of just 6.2% year-to-date, it still trails the bigger indexes.
The week ahead
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