The election analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any candidate or political party.
Donald Trump has pulled off an astonishing upset to win the White House, securing at least 288 electoral votes as of 3:30 a.m. EST to defeat Hillary Clinton.
With Republicans retaining their majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate, the party will have the ability to control the agenda in Washington.
The narrow margin in the Senate will afford Democrats the opportunity to use every Senate rule available to them to block or slow Republican initiatives in that chamber, but Republicans will have the advantage in trying to push through their priorities, potentially including tax cuts and changes to trade policy, health care and immigration.
Futures markets reacted strongly overnight to Trump’s surprise win. Market volatility is likely to remain highly elevated amid uncertainty about Trump’s presidency.
Trump significantly outperformed pre-election polls—similar to the Brexit vote in Great Britain last summer. Trump was able to redraw the electoral map, winning Wisconsin, a state that had not voted for a Republican for president since 1984, and he was ahead in Michigan, which had voted for Democrats in the last six presidential elections. He also won the battleground states of Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
During the campaign, Trump championed a number of broad policy initiatives—building a wall on the Mexican border, repealing the Affordable Care Act, making major changes to U.S. trade policy—but generally provided much less detail about his policy positions and priorities than a traditional campaign. The markets and Washington lawmakers from both parties will be watching the president-elect carefully in the coming days and weeks to see who he nominates for key cabinet and regulatory positions, as well as what priorities he intends to focus on in the initial months of his presidency.
Moreover, many of Trump’s policy proposals will take considerable time to work their way through Congress once he takes office in January. For example, while Trump and Republicans on Capitol Hill have championed tax cuts, the details of tax reform legislation will be complex and are unlikely to be resolved quickly.